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Bundesliga

Referee: M Fritz

Dortmund

U T T U U

1–1

Full-time

Mainz

U U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

2,8

1,0

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 27%

47%

Points per game

1,7

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

60%

53%

Both score Ø 63%

73%

53%

Average goals

3,5

2,6

Scored

1,9

0,8

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,21 xG 0,95

66% Possession 34%

21 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 6

7 Blocked shots 0

5 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 1

1 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 5. · Mainz 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	15	12	3	0	+30	+15.1	39
2	Bayern Munich	14	11	2	1	+33	+31.1	35
3	RB Leipzig	16	10	3	3	+21	+14.0	33
4	Stuttgart	15	10	1	4	+15	+18.8	31
5	Dortmund	15	7	5	3	+5	+1.1	26
6	Freiburg	15	7	3	5	-4	+0.3	24
7	Hoffenheim	15	7	2	6	+2	-3.8	23
8	Ein Frankfurt	15	5	6	4	+5	-2.9	21
9	Wolfsburg	15	6	1	8	-6	-2.5	19
10	Augsburg	15	4	6	5	-4	-1.1	18
11	M'gladbach	15	4	5	6	-3	-3.4	17
12	Heidenheim	15	5	2	8	-8	-16.4	17
13	Werder Bremen	16	4	4	8	-7	-7.3	16
14	Bochum	15	3	7	5	-11	-4.6	16
15	Union Berlin	14	3	1	10	-16	-5.3	10
16	FC Koln	15	2	4	9	-16	-17.3	10
17	Mainz	15	1	6	8	-15	-1.2	9
18	Darmstadt	15	2	3	10	-21	-14.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	8	7	1	0	+19	+13.9	22
2	RB Leipzig	8	6	2	0	+18	+10.5	20
3	Bayern Munich	7	6	1	0	+25	+18.4	19
4	Stuttgart	8	6	1	1	+16	+15.9	19
5	Dortmund	8	5	1	2	+2	+4.1	16
6	Freiburg	7	4	2	1	+4	+5.7	14
7	Werder Bremen	9	4	2	3	+1	-0.8	14
8	Wolfsburg	7	4	1	2	+4	+0.3	13
9	Augsburg	8	3	4	1	+2	+0.5	13
10	Heidenheim	7	4	1	2	+2	-4.4	13
11	Ein Frankfurt	7	3	3	1	+6	+0.8	12
12	M'gladbach	8	3	2	3	+1	+0.3	11
13	Bochum	7	2	4	1	+3	+5.8	10
14	Hoffenheim	7	2	1	4	-2	-1.2	7
15	Union Berlin	7	2	1	4	-6	-2.0	7
16	FC Koln	7	1	2	4	-4	-6.2	5
17	Darmstadt	8	1	2	5	-6	-2.4	5
18	Mainz	7	1	1	5	-7	+1.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	7	5	2	0	+11	+1.3	17
2	Bayern Munich	7	5	1	1	+8	+12.7	16
3	Hoffenheim	8	5	1	2	+4	-2.7	16
4	RB Leipzig	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.5	13
5	Stuttgart	7	4	0	3	-1	+2.9	12
6	Dortmund	7	2	4	1	+3	-3.1	10
7	Freiburg	8	3	1	4	-8	-5.5	10
8	Ein Frankfurt	8	2	3	3	-1	-3.7	9
9	M'gladbach	7	1	3	3	-4	-3.6	6
10	Wolfsburg	8	2	0	6	-10	-2.8	6
11	Bochum	8	1	3	4	-14	-10.4	6
12	Augsburg	7	1	2	4	-6	-1.6	5
13	Mainz	8	0	5	3	-8	-3.1	5
14	FC Koln	8	1	2	5	-12	-11.1	5
15	Heidenheim	8	1	1	6	-10	-12.0	4
16	Darmstadt	7	1	1	5	-15	-12.2	4
17	Union Berlin	7	1	0	6	-10	-3.3	3
18	Werder Bremen	7	0	2	5	-8	-6.5	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.