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Bundesliga

Referee: S Stegemann

Freiburg

U U T T S

3–2

Full-time

Hoffenheim

U T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 35%

45%

24%

Points per game

1,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

66%

52%

Both score Ø 59%

52%

66%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,29 xG 1,68

39% Possession 61%

12 Shots 19

6 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 6. · Hoffenheim 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	29	21	6	2	+54	+50.0	69
2	Leverkusen	29	18	9	2	+29	+22.8	63
3	Ein Frankfurt	29	15	6	8	+16	+12.5	51
4	RB Leipzig	29	13	9	7	+10	-5.6	48
5	Mainz	29	13	7	9	+12	-1.7	46
6	Freiburg	29	13	6	10	-5	+0.4	45
7	M'gladbach	29	13	5	11	+3	-7.6	44
8	Dortmund	29	12	6	11	+9	+16.2	42
9	Werder Bremen	29	12	6	11	-7	-0.6	42
10	Augsburg	29	11	9	9	-7	-13.1	42
11	Stuttgart	29	11	7	11	+6	+8.0	40
12	Wolfsburg	29	10	8	11	+6	-0.9	38
13	Union Berlin	29	9	8	12	-12	-8.9	35
14	Hoffenheim	29	7	9	13	-16	-13.6	30
15	St Pauli	29	8	5	16	-10	-7.3	29
16	Heidenheim	29	6	4	19	-24	-11.4	22
17	Holstein Kiel	29	4	6	19	-30	-18.2	18
18	Bochum	29	4	6	19	-34	-21.0	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	12	2	1	+32	+33.3	38
2	Leverkusen	15	9	4	2	+14	+15.2	31
3	Ein Frankfurt	15	9	3	3	+15	+15.2	30
4	RB Leipzig	14	8	4	2	+11	+2.7	28
5	Dortmund	14	8	3	3	+17	+14.4	27
6	Freiburg	14	8	2	4	+7	+2.0	26
7	Mainz	14	6	5	3	+6	+4.0	23
8	M'gladbach	15	7	2	6	+4	-0.4	23
9	Augsburg	14	6	4	4	+1	+1.8	22
10	Stuttgart	15	6	2	7	+5	+10.6	20
11	Union Berlin	14	5	5	4	+0	+1.7	20
12	Hoffenheim	15	4	5	6	-6	-2.3	17
13	Werder Bremen	14	4	4	6	-6	+2.1	16
14	Wolfsburg	15	3	6	6	-2	+1.5	15
15	St Pauli	14	3	4	7	-6	+1.3	13
16	Bochum	15	3	3	9	-14	-4.2	12
17	Holstein Kiel	15	3	2	10	-17	-8.2	11
18	Heidenheim	14	3	1	10	-13	-4.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	14	9	5	0	+15	+7.6	32
2	Bayern Munich	14	9	4	1	+22	+16.6	31
3	Werder Bremen	15	8	2	5	-1	-2.7	26
4	Wolfsburg	14	7	2	5	+8	-2.4	23
5	Mainz	15	7	2	6	+6	-5.7	23
6	Ein Frankfurt	14	6	3	5	+1	-2.7	21
7	M'gladbach	14	6	3	5	-1	-7.2	21
8	Stuttgart	14	5	5	4	+1	-2.7	20
9	RB Leipzig	15	5	5	5	-1	-8.3	20
10	Augsburg	15	5	5	5	-8	-14.9	20
11	Freiburg	15	5	4	6	-12	-1.5	19
12	St Pauli	15	5	1	9	-4	-8.5	16
13	Dortmund	15	4	3	8	-8	+1.8	15
14	Union Berlin	15	4	3	8	-12	-10.5	15
15	Hoffenheim	14	3	4	7	-10	-11.4	13
16	Heidenheim	15	3	3	9	-11	-7.2	12
17	Holstein Kiel	14	1	4	9	-13	-9.9	7
18	Bochum	14	1	3	10	-20	-16.8	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.