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Ekstraklasa
Referee: D Sylwestrzak
1–0
Full-time
Rakow
S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pogon Szczecin Rakow
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,8
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,2
Scored
2,3
2,3
Conceded
0,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ekstraklasa · 28/28 matches
Win Ø 56%
50%
61%
Points per game
1,7
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
54%
36%
Both score Ø 39%
39%
39%
Average goals
2,7
2,1
Scored
1,6
1,5
Conceded
1,1
0,6
Goal diff per game
+0,6
+0,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,12 xG 0,16
66% Possession 34%
19 Shots 5
8 Shots on target 0
4 Blocked shots 3
0 Goalkeeper saves 7
13 Corners 2
1 Offside 0
13 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Pogon Szczecin 4. · Rakow 1.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Rakow 28 17 8 3 +24 +11.8 59
2 Lech Poznan 28 18 2 8 +27 +9.1 56
3 Jagiellonia 28 16 7 5 +17 +2.9 55
4 Pogon Szczecin 28 14 5 9 +16 +12.3 47
5 Legia 28 12 8 8 +13 +10.4 44
6 Motor Lublin 29 12 7 10 -6 +0.5 43
7 Cracovia 28 11 9 8 +5 -4.3 42
8 GKS Katowice 29 12 6 11 +3 +1.5 42
9 Gornik Zabrze 28 12 4 12 +4 +5.1 40
10 Piast Gliwice 29 9 11 9 -1 -3.8 38
11 Korona Kielce 29 9 10 10 -10 +0.7 37
12 Widzew Lodz 29 10 6 13 -9 -6.3 36
13 Radomiak Radom 28 10 4 14 -5 -0.7 34
14 Zaglebie 28 8 5 15 -17 -7.1 29
15 Lechia Gdansk 28 7 6 15 -18 -15.3 27
16 Puszcza 28 6 8 14 -15 -15.2 26
17 Slask Wroclaw 29 5 10 14 -12 -0.6 25
18 Stal Mielec 28 6 6 16 -16 -1.0 24

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Pogon Szczecin Rakow
16′
🟥 Erick Otieno
16′
ℹ️ Erick Otieno
VAR: Card upgrade
Léo Borges 🟨
24′
1–0 L. Wahlqvist
R. Kurzawa
37′
Half-time 1–0
49′
🟨 Ivi López
60′
🟨 Stratos Svarnas
61′
🟨 Jean Carlos
62′
🔁 J. Díaz
↦ Ivi López
M. Wędrychowski 🔁
↦ A. Przyborek
68′
76′
🔁 P. Makuch
↦ J. Braut Brunes
76′
🔁 P. Baráth
↦ V. Kochergin
W. Lisowski 🔁
↦ L. Koútris
82′
82′
🔁 Leonardo Rocha
↦ Adriano Amorim
82′
🔁 M. Rodin
↦ Z. Arsenić
D. Keramitsis 🔁
↦ K. Grosicki
88′
89′
🟨 Péter Baráth
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Pogon Szczecin

4-3-3
77 V. Cojocaru G
28 L. Wahlqvist D
68 D. Lončar D
4 Léo Borges D
32 L. Koútris D
8 F. Ulvestad M
21 João Gamboa M
7 R. Kurzawa M
10 A. Przyborek F
9 E. Koulouris F
11 K. Grosicki F
Bench (9)
15 M. Wędrychowski
25 W. Lisowski
13 D. Keramitsis
27 O. Korczakowski
31 K. Kamiński
61 K. Smoliński
51 P. Paryzek
17 J. Lis
19 K. Łukasiak

Coach: R. Kolendowicz

Rakow

3-4-2-1
1 K. Trelowski G
7 F. Tudor D
24 Z. Arsenić D
4 S. Svarnas D
26 E. Otieno M
5 G. Berggren M
30 V. Kochergin M
20 Jean Carlos M
84 Adriano Amorim F
10 Ivi López F
18 J. Braut Brunes F
Bench (9)
15 J. Díaz
9 P. Makuch
23 P. Baráth
17 Leonardo Rocha
88 M. Rodin
2 A. Mosór
3 M. Rundić
8 B. Lederman
12 D. Kuciak

Coach: M. Papszun

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
U
B
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

D Sylwestrzak · 105 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,0 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.