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La Liga
Referee: Víctor García
Las Palmas
T U U T S
1–0
Full-time
Ath Madrid
T U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Las Palmas Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,2
Scored
1,3
1,7
Conceded
1,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 31/31 matches
Win Ø 41%
23%
58%
Points per game
0,9
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
58%
42%
Both score Ø 63%
74%
52%
Average goals
2,9
2,5
Scored
1,2
1,7
Conceded
1,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,61 xG 0,80
41% Possession 59%
8 Shots 7
2 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 4
0 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Las Palmas 18. · Ath Madrid 3.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 32 23 4 5 +56 +40.0 73
2 Real Madrid 31 20 6 5 +33 +27.1 66
3 Ath Madrid 31 18 9 4 +27 +22.3 63
4 Ath Bilbao 31 15 12 4 +24 +16.5 57
5 Villarreal 30 14 9 7 +13 +19.6 51
6 Betis 31 13 9 9 +3 +9.2 48
7 Mallorca 32 12 8 12 -6 +1.1 44
8 Celta 32 12 7 13 -2 +9.4 43
9 Vallecano 32 10 11 11 -4 -3.0 41
10 Sociedad 31 12 5 14 -4 +0.3 41
11 Getafe 32 10 9 13 +2 -5.7 39
12 Espanol 31 10 8 13 -6 -20.6 38
13 Osasuna 31 8 14 9 -8 -8.7 38
14 Valencia 32 9 11 12 -12 -8.7 38
15 Sevilla 31 9 9 13 -8 -9.3 36
16 Girona 31 9 7 15 -10 -4.0 34
17 Alaves 31 7 9 15 -12 -3.0 30
18 Las Palmas 31 7 8 16 -15 -27.9 29
19 Leganes 32 6 11 15 -19 -24.8 29
20 Valladolid 31 4 4 23 -52 -29.7 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Las Palmas Ath Madrid
Half-time 0–0
54′
🟨 Javi Galán
59′
🔁 R. De Paul
↦ Koke
59′
🔁 Rodrigo Riquelme
↦ C. Gallagher
65′
🔁 César Azpilicueta
↦ Javi Galán
65′
🔁 A. Griezmann
↦ J. Alvarez
Marvin Park 🔁
↦ O. McBurnie
67′
Javier Muñoz 🟨
71′
75′
🔁 Á. Correa
↦ A. Sørloth
Dário Essugo 🟨
77′
Sandro Ramírez 🔁
↦ Dário Essugo
79′
Jaime Mata 🔁
↦ Fábio Silva
83′
José Campaña 🔁
↦ Alberto Moleiro
83′
1–0 Javi Muñoz
93′
Jaime Mata 🟨
94′
Javier Muñoz ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
95′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Las Palmas

4-4-2
13 D. Horkaš G
18 Viti Rozada D
4 Álex Suárez D
15 S. McKenna D
3 Mika Mármol D
5 Javi Muñoz M
29 Dário Essugo M
21 Stefan Bajčetić M
10 Alberto Moleiro M
16 O. McBurnie F
37 Fábio Silva F
Bench (12)
2 Marvin Park
19 Sandro Ramírez
17 Jaime Mata
8 José Campaña
23 Álex Muñoz
9 Marc Cardona
14 Manu Fuster
28 Juanma Herzog
12 E. Loiodice
24 A. Januzaj
35 Israel Mora
30 Álvaro Killane

Coach: Diego Martínez

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
14 Marcos Llorente D
2 J. Giménez D
24 Robin Le Normand D
21 Javi Galán D
22 G. Simeone M
8 Pablo Barrios M
6 Koke M
4 C. Gallagher M
19 J. Alvarez F
9 A. Sørloth F
Bench (12)
5 R. De Paul
17 Rodrigo Riquelme
3 César Azpilicueta
7 A. Griezmann
10 Á. Correa
15 C. Lenglet
1 J. Musso
23 Reinildo
12 Samuel Lino
20 A. Witsel
11 T. Lemar
16 N. Molina

Coach: D. Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
5,79
U
4,20
B
1,56
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,80
U2,5 ✓
2,02
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Víctor García · 49 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.