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Bundesliga

Referee: S Jablonski

Freiburg

S S S S U

0–0

Full-time

RB Leipzig

S U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,8

1,7

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 46%

50%

42%

Points per game

1,7

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

63%

58%

Both score Ø 50%

46%

54%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,51 xG 1,54

53% Possession 47%

10 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 6

3 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 5. · RB Leipzig 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	25	19	4	2	+51	+44.1	61
2	Leverkusen	25	15	8	2	+25	+22.5	53
3	Mainz	25	13	5	7	+16	+2.1	44
4	Ein Frankfurt	24	12	6	6	+13	+6.6	42
5	Freiburg	24	12	4	8	-2	+0.1	40
6	Wolfsburg	25	10	8	7	+10	-1.8	38
7	RB Leipzig	24	10	8	6	+6	-5.2	38
8	Stuttgart	25	10	7	8	+5	+7.9	37
9	M'gladbach	25	11	4	10	+1	-5.8	37
10	Dortmund	25	10	5	10	+6	+11.5	35
11	Augsburg	25	9	8	8	-7	-8.4	35
12	Werder Bremen	25	9	6	10	-11	-2.5	33
13	Hoffenheim	24	6	7	11	-15	-12.5	25
14	Union Berlin	24	6	6	12	-15	-6.1	24
15	St Pauli	25	6	4	15	-11	-8.4	22
16	Bochum	25	4	6	15	-25	-18.0	18
17	Holstein Kiel	25	4	5	16	-24	-15.6	17
18	Heidenheim	24	4	3	17	-23	-10.5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	11	1	1	+31	+30.3	34
2	Leverkusen	13	8	3	2	+12	+13.8	27
3	Freiburg	11	8	1	2	+11	+4.6	25
4	Dortmund	13	7	3	3	+15	+12.4	24
5	Ein Frankfurt	12	7	3	2	+12	+9.8	24
6	RB Leipzig	12	6	4	2	+7	+3.1	22
7	Mainz	12	6	3	3	+6	+5.3	21
8	Stuttgart	13	6	2	5	+7	+9.9	20
9	M'gladbach	13	6	2	5	+4	-0.1	20
10	Augsburg	12	5	4	3	+2	+3.8	19
11	Union Berlin	12	4	4	4	-1	+3.1	16
12	Wolfsburg	13	3	6	4	+0	+1.3	15
13	Werder Bremen	12	3	4	5	-6	+1.3	13
14	Bochum	12	3	3	6	-7	-2.7	12
15	Hoffenheim	12	3	3	6	-8	-3.8	12
16	Holstein Kiel	13	3	2	8	-13	-6.3	11
17	St Pauli	12	2	3	7	-7	-1.8	9
18	Heidenheim	12	2	1	9	-14	-4.7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	8	3	1	+20	+13.8	27
2	Leverkusen	12	7	5	0	+13	+8.7	26
3	Wolfsburg	12	7	2	3	+10	-3.1	23
4	Mainz	13	7	2	4	+10	-3.2	23
5	Werder Bremen	13	6	2	5	-5	-3.8	20
6	Ein Frankfurt	12	5	3	4	+1	-3.3	18
7	Stuttgart	12	4	5	3	-2	-2.0	17
8	M'gladbach	12	5	2	5	-3	-5.7	17
9	RB Leipzig	12	4	4	4	-1	-8.3	16
10	Augsburg	13	4	4	5	-9	-12.2	16
11	Freiburg	13	4	3	6	-13	-4.4	15
12	St Pauli	13	4	1	8	-4	-6.6	13
13	Hoffenheim	12	3	4	5	-7	-8.8	13
14	Dortmund	12	3	2	7	-9	-0.9	11
15	Heidenheim	12	2	2	8	-9	-5.8	8
16	Union Berlin	12	2	2	8	-14	-9.2	8
17	Holstein Kiel	12	1	3	8	-11	-9.3	6
18	Bochum	13	1	3	9	-18	-15.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.