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Eredivisie

Referee: R Hensgens

Heerenveen

T U T S T

2–1

Full-time

Almere City

T U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen Almere City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 28/29 matches

Win Ø 23%

32%

14%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

54%

48%

Both score Ø 44%

54%

34%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,36 xG 1,09

54% Possession 46%

15 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 10. · Almere City 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	29	23	4	2	+40	+28.9	73
2	PSV Eindhoven	29	20	4	5	+53	+39.1	64
3	Feyenoord	29	17	8	4	+32	+24.2	59
4	Utrecht	29	16	8	5	+11	+2.8	56
5	Go Ahead Eagles	29	13	7	9	+6	+10.4	46
6	Twente	27	12	9	6	+13	+14.0	45
7	AZ Alkmaar	27	11	7	9	+5	+10.3	40
8	Heracles	29	8	11	10	-12	-14.0	35
9	Sparta Rotterdam	29	8	10	11	-3	+2.0	34
10	Heerenveen	28	9	7	12	-8	-2.4	34
11	Nijmegen	28	9	6	13	+1	+1.4	33
12	For Sittard	29	9	6	14	-16	-7.4	33
13	Groningen	29	8	8	13	-16	-10.2	32
14	Zwolle	29	7	10	12	-9	-21.4	31
15	NAC Breda	29	8	7	14	-18	-15.3	31
16	Willem II	29	6	6	17	-19	-25.4	24
17	Waalwijk	29	4	7	18	-23	-19.3	19
18	Almere City	29	4	7	18	-37	-17.8	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	14	12	2	0	+25	+19.6	38
2	PSV Eindhoven	15	11	3	1	+34	+25.0	36
3	Go Ahead Eagles	15	9	4	2	+12	+13.8	31
4	Feyenoord	14	9	3	2	+15	+15.1	30
5	Twente	13	8	4	1	+14	+13.2	28
6	Heerenveen	14	7	6	1	+11	+7.4	27
7	Utrecht	15	8	2	5	+0	+6.5	26
8	Heracles	15	6	7	2	+6	+4.4	25
9	Groningen	14	6	5	3	+5	+1.9	23
10	NAC Breda	15	6	5	4	+1	+0.6	23
11	Zwolle	15	6	3	6	+2	-4.3	21
12	Nijmegen	15	5	5	5	+9	+6.6	20
13	Sparta Rotterdam	15	4	6	5	+0	+4.8	18
14	For Sittard	14	6	0	8	-9	+0.5	18
15	AZ Alkmaar	12	5	2	5	+1	+9.6	17
16	Willem II	15	3	3	9	-5	-10.7	12
17	Waalwijk	14	3	3	8	-6	-5.7	12
18	Almere City	14	2	3	9	-20	-2.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	15	11	2	2	+15	+9.3	35
2	Utrecht	14	8	6	0	+11	-3.7	30
3	Feyenoord	15	8	5	2	+17	+9.1	29
4	PSV Eindhoven	14	9	1	4	+19	+14.1	28
5	AZ Alkmaar	15	6	5	4	+4	+0.7	23
6	Twente	14	4	5	5	-1	+0.7	17
7	Sparta Rotterdam	14	4	4	6	-3	-2.8	16
8	Go Ahead Eagles	14	4	3	7	-6	-3.3	15
9	For Sittard	15	3	6	6	-7	-7.9	15
10	Nijmegen	13	4	1	8	-8	-5.2	13
11	Willem II	14	3	3	8	-14	-14.6	12
12	Zwolle	14	1	7	6	-11	-17.1	10
13	Almere City	15	2	4	9	-17	-15.8	10
14	Heracles	14	2	4	8	-18	-18.4	10
15	Groningen	15	2	3	10	-21	-12.1	9
16	NAC Breda	14	2	2	10	-19	-15.9	8
17	Waalwijk	15	1	4	10	-17	-13.6	7
18	Heerenveen	14	2	1	11	-19	-9.8	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.