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Bundesliga

Referee: Sven Jablonski

Freiburg

T S T U T

0–1

Full-time

Union Berlin

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Union Berlin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 32%

36%

28%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

64%

56%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

3,2

2,9

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,19 xG 0,54

73% Possession 27%

19 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 4

6 Free kicks against 19

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 8. · Union Berlin 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	26	21	4	1	+68	+46.0	67
2	Dortmund	26	17	7	2	+29	+16.7	58
3	Hoffenheim	26	15	5	6	+20	+4.9	50
4	Stuttgart	25	14	5	6	+16	+5.9	47
5	RB Leipzig	25	14	5	6	+14	+12.3	47
6	Leverkusen	26	13	6	7	+16	+14.6	45
7	Ein Frankfurt	26	10	8	8	+0	-1.9	38
8	Freiburg	25	9	7	9	-5	+3.8	34
9	Augsburg	26	9	4	13	-14	-14.4	31
10	Hamburg	26	7	9	10	-8	-10.7	30
11	Union Berlin	25	7	7	11	-12	-2.4	28
12	M'gladbach	26	7	7	12	-13	-5.5	28
13	Mainz	26	6	9	11	-10	-7.4	27
14	FC Koln	26	6	7	13	-9	-6.2	25
15	Werder Bremen	26	6	7	13	-18	-6.7	25
16	St Pauli	26	6	6	14	-19	-16.2	24
17	Wolfsburg	26	5	6	15	-21	-15.4	21
18	Heidenheim	26	3	5	18	-34	-17.3	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	11	1	1	+39	+25.6	34
2	Dortmund	13	10	2	1	+19	+12.9	32
3	Stuttgart	12	9	2	1	+9	+5.9	29
4	RB Leipzig	13	8	2	3	+11	+7.6	26
5	Hoffenheim	13	8	1	4	+13	+7.2	25
6	Freiburg	12	7	4	1	+9	+11.0	25
7	Leverkusen	13	7	3	3	+14	+14.9	24
8	Ein Frankfurt	13	7	2	4	+5	+4.4	23
9	Augsburg	13	6	3	4	-2	-6.3	21
10	Hamburg	14	5	5	4	+3	-2.0	20
11	Union Berlin	13	4	5	4	-3	+1.8	17
12	M'gladbach	13	4	4	5	-5	-1.2	16
13	St Pauli	12	4	4	4	-5	-2.9	16
14	Werder Bremen	13	4	4	5	-9	+3.3	16
15	FC Koln	13	4	3	6	+1	+0.6	15
16	Mainz	13	3	5	5	-1	+4.7	14
17	Heidenheim	13	2	4	7	-16	-9.1	10
18	Wolfsburg	13	2	3	8	-8	-2.7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	10	3	0	+29	+20.4	33
2	Dortmund	13	7	5	1	+10	+3.8	26
3	Hoffenheim	13	7	4	2	+7	-2.3	25
4	RB Leipzig	12	6	3	3	+3	+4.7	21
5	Leverkusen	13	6	3	4	+2	-0.3	21
6	Stuttgart	13	5	3	5	+7	+0.0	18
7	Ein Frankfurt	13	3	6	4	-5	-6.3	15
8	Mainz	13	3	4	6	-9	-12.1	13
9	M'gladbach	13	3	3	7	-8	-4.3	12
10	Wolfsburg	13	3	3	7	-13	-12.7	12
11	Union Berlin	12	3	2	7	-9	-4.2	11
12	FC Koln	13	2	4	7	-10	-6.8	10
13	Hamburg	12	2	4	6	-11	-8.7	10
14	Augsburg	13	3	1	9	-12	-8.1	10
15	Werder Bremen	13	2	3	8	-9	-10.0	9
16	Freiburg	13	2	3	8	-14	-7.2	9
17	St Pauli	14	2	2	10	-14	-13.3	8
18	Heidenheim	13	1	1	11	-18	-8.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.