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Ligue 1

Referee: G Angoula

Metz

U T T T T

3–4

Full-time

Toulouse

T U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

0,2

0,7

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 22%

12%

32%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

60%

44%

Both score Ø 44%

48%

40%

Average goals

3,1

2,5

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,4

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–3

1,60 xG 1,57

50% Possession 50%

17 Shots 19

8 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 4

10 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 18. · Toulouse 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	25	18	3	4	+32	+29.3	57
2	Lens	26	18	2	6	+26	+18.0	56
3	Marseille	26	15	4	7	+20	+10.8	49
4	Lyon	25	14	4	7	+13	+7.8	46
5	Monaco	26	13	4	9	+8	+6.7	43
6	Rennes	25	12	7	6	+7	-1.3	43
7	Lille	25	12	5	8	+6	+9.6	41
8	Strasbourg	26	10	7	9	+9	+9.3	37
9	Lorient	26	9	10	7	-3	-1.3	37
10	Brest	26	10	6	10	-2	-0.5	36
11	Angers	26	9	5	12	-9	-16.6	32
12	Toulouse	25	8	7	10	+4	+3.6	31
13	Paris FC	26	6	10	10	-12	-13.1	28
14	Nice	26	7	6	13	-16	-9.4	27
15	Le Havre	25	6	8	11	-12	-10.3	26
16	Auxerre	26	4	7	15	-17	-8.2	19
17	Nantes	25	4	5	16	-20	-12.8	17
18	Metz	25	3	4	18	-34	-21.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	13	11	0	2	+18	+15.1	33
2	Paris SG	12	10	1	1	+24	+16.5	31
3	Marseille	13	9	3	1	+18	+9.6	30
4	Lyon	12	9	1	2	+12	+9.7	28
5	Monaco	14	9	1	4	+10	+8.9	28
6	Lorient	13	7	5	1	+7	+4.7	26
7	Strasbourg	13	7	3	3	+12	+12.6	24
8	Rennes	12	7	3	2	+11	+6.6	24
9	Brest	13	7	3	3	+7	+8.8	24
10	Lille	13	7	3	3	+6	+8.4	24
11	Le Havre	13	5	5	3	+3	+2.3	20
12	Angers	13	6	2	5	+1	-4.4	20
13	Toulouse	13	4	5	4	+3	+5.3	17
14	Nice	13	4	5	4	-4	-0.4	17
15	Paris FC	12	3	4	5	-7	-4.0	13
16	Auxerre	13	3	3	7	-5	+1.2	12
17	Metz	12	2	3	7	-9	-3.1	9
18	Nantes	13	2	2	9	-11	-6.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	8	2	3	+8	+12.8	26
2	Lens	13	7	2	4	+8	+2.9	23
3	Marseille	13	6	1	6	+2	+1.2	19
4	Rennes	13	5	4	4	-4	-8.0	19
5	Lyon	13	5	3	5	+1	-1.9	18
6	Lille	12	5	2	5	+0	+1.2	17
7	Monaco	12	4	3	5	-2	-2.2	15
8	Paris FC	14	3	6	5	-5	-9.1	15
9	Toulouse	12	4	2	6	+1	-1.7	14
10	Strasbourg	13	3	4	6	-3	-3.2	13
11	Brest	13	3	3	7	-9	-9.3	12
12	Angers	13	3	3	7	-10	-12.2	12
13	Lorient	13	2	5	6	-10	-6.0	11
14	Nice	13	3	1	9	-12	-8.9	10
15	Nantes	12	2	3	7	-9	-6.2	9
16	Auxerre	13	1	4	8	-12	-9.4	7
17	Le Havre	12	1	3	8	-15	-12.7	6
18	Metz	13	1	1	11	-25	-18.7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.