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Bundesliga
Referee: Tobias Stieler
Mainz
T S T S S
0–0
Full-time
Paderborn
U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Paderborn
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
4,5
3,5
Scored
3,0
1,8
Conceded
1,5
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,23 xG 0,73
51% Possession 49%
21 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 0
6 Blocked shots 4
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
11 Corners 2
1 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

29. Feb -20 Mainz – Paderborn 2–0 5. Oct -19 Paderborn – Mainz 1–2

Match report

Mainz Paderborn
38′
🟨 Santiago Castañeda
Half-time 0–0
67′
🔁 S. Tigges
↦ S. Marino
O. Ruoppi 🔁
↦ S. Becker
68′
R. Konigsdorffer 🔁
↦ Lee Jae-Sung
68′
72′
🟨 Mattes Hansen
S. Widmer 🔁
↦ A. Caci
73′
75′
🔁 J. Sticker
↦ M. Hansen
75′
🔁 T. Baack
↦ L. Ulrich
K. Potulski 🔁
↦ D. Kohr
80′
Phillipp Mwene 🟨
91′
92′
🔁 C. Lippmann
↦ M. Pieringer
Full-time 0–0

Line-ups

Mainz

3-1-4-2
27 R. Zentner G
21 D. da Costa D
3 F. Gruber D
31 D. Kohr D
6 K. Sano M
19 A. Caci M
7 Lee Jae-Sung M
10 N. Amiri M
2 P. Mwene M
23 S. Becker F
9 P. Tietz F
Bench (9)
1 A. Schwolow
30 S. Widmer
15 L. Maloney
4 S. Posch
48 K. Potulski
24 S. Kawasaki
20 O. Ruoppi
11 R. Konigsdorffer
47 R. Nakuzola

Coach: Urs Fischer

Paderborn

3-4-3
15 N. Noll G
21 J. ter Horst D
25 T. Scheller D
22 M. Hansen D
17 L. Curda M
28 L. Ulrich M
5 S. Castaneda M
23 R. Obermair M
18 M. Pieringer F
30 S. Marino F
40 G. Vidovic F
Bench (9)
1 M. Schubert
3 J. Sticker
29 C. Lippmann
24 N. Mohr
6 T. Baack
7 O. Batista Meier
8 L. Djuric
27 S. Tigges
38 D. Zeitler

Coach: Ralf Kettemann

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,66
🔒
U ✓
3,98
🔒
B
4,71
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
1,62
🔒
U2,5 ✓
2,22
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Tobias Stieler · 91 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.