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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Arouca

S S S S T

2–1

Full-time

Maritimo

T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Maritimo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,7

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,65 xG 0,67

52% Possession 48%

17 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 3

8 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 5. · Maritimo 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+7	+4.3	10
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.7	9
3	Maritimo	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.1	7
4	Santa Clara	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.5	7
5	Arouca	3	2	0	1	+3	-2.5	6
6	Gil Vicente	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.5	6
7	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+7	+5.0	4
8	Nacional	3	1	1	1	+1	-2.1	4
9	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-1	+4.7	3
10	Rio Ave	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.5	3
11	Estrela	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
12	Academico Viseu	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.5	2
13	Famalicao	3	0	1	2	-2	-0.8	1
14	Alverca	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.1	1
15	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.8	1
16	Estoril	3	0	1	2	-4	-1.1	1
17	Casa Pia	3	0	0	3	-10	-4.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.4	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.6	6
3	Gil Vicente	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.5	6
4	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
5	Maritimo	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
6	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.7	3
7	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
8	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	+4.6	3
9	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.4	1
10	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
11	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
12	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
13	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.0	1
14	Famalicao	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
15	Academico Viseu	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
16	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.5	0
17	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-7	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+4	+2.7	4
2	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+7	+2.7	3
3	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
4	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
5	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.9	3
6	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
7	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	-4.2	3
8	Academico Viseu	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.8	2
9	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
10	Nacional	2	0	1	1	-1	-3.2	1
11	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.1	1
12	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
13	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
14	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
15	Alverca	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.7	0
16	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.