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Ligue 1

Referee: Jérôme Brisard

Brest

T T T U U

2–2

Full-time

Toulouse

T U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brest Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,3

3,7

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

1,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

4,0

2,0

Scored

2,0

0,0

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,04 xG 1,14

51% Possession 49%

26 Shots 6

7 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 2

5 Offside 0

19 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brest 10. · Toulouse 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
2	Marseille	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.7	3
3	Lens	2	1	0	1	+2	+3.7	3
4	Lyon	1	1	0	0	+2	-2.1	3
5	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
6	Strasbourg	2	1	0	1	-3	-2.8	3
7	Paris SG	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.5	2
8	Rennes	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
9	Le Mans	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.1	1
10	Brest	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.1	1
11	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
12	Lorient	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
13	Troyes	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.4	1
14	Paris FC	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.4	1
15	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
16	Angers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.8	0
17	Toulouse	1	0	0	1	-2	+2.1	0
18	Auxerre	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.7	3
2	Lens	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
3	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.1	3
4	Rennes	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
5	Lille	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
6	Le Mans	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.1	1
7	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
8	Troyes	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.4	1
9	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
10	Angers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.8	0
11	Toulouse	1	0	0	1	-2	+2.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.8	3
2	Lyon	1	1	0	0	+2	-2.1	3
3	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
4	Paris SG	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.5	2
5	Brest	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.1	1
6	Lorient	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
7	Paris FC	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.4	1
8	Lens	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.1	0
9	Auxerre	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
10	Strasbourg	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.