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2. Bundesliga

Referee: Felix Bickel

Heidenheim

S T S T T

5–3

Full-time

Dresden

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heidenheim Dresden

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

5,2

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

3,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

6,0

2,0

Scored

2,5

0,5

Conceded

3,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

3,24 xG 1,52

37% Possession 63%

27 Shots 17

10 Shots on target 8

6 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 9

4 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Heidenheim 9. · Dresden 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hertha	3	3	0	0	+6	+1.4	9
2	Nurnberg	2	2	0	0	+5	-1.0	6
3	Karlsruhe	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.0	4
4	Wolfsburg	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
5	Braunschweig	3	1	0	2	+2	+1.5	3
6	Bielefeld	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.8	3
7	Cottbus	2	1	0	1	-1	-4.7	3
8	Bochum	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.0	3
9	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.1	3
10	Magdeburg	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.4	3
11	Dresden	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.0	3
12	Osnabruck	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.3	3
13	Holstein Kiel	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.2	2
14	St Pauli	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
15	Kaiserslautern	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.1	2
16	Darmstadt	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.9	1
17	Greuther Furth	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.3	1
18	Hannover	2	0	0	2	-3	+1.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.8	3
2	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.0	3
3	Nurnberg	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.3	3
4	Cottbus	1	1	0	0	+2	-1.7	3
5	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
6	Karlsruhe	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
7	Dresden	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
8	Darmstadt	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
9	Holstein Kiel	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
10	St Pauli	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
11	Wolfsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
12	Kaiserslautern	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
13	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
14	Greuther Furth	1	0	0	1	-2	+1.3	0
15	Bochum	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.2	0
16	Braunschweig	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.7	0
17	Osnabruck	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.8	0
18	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-5	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hertha	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.6	6
2	Braunschweig	1	1	0	0	+5	+2.2	3
3	Magdeburg	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.8	3
4	Nurnberg	1	1	0	0	+2	-1.3	3
5	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
6	Bochum	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
7	Osnabruck	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.5	3
8	Holstein Kiel	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
9	St Pauli	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
10	Greuther Furth	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
11	Kaiserslautern	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
12	Karlsruhe	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
13	Bielefeld	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
14	Darmstadt	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
15	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-2	+1.7	0
16	Heidenheim	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.8	0
17	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.0	0
18	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.