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Premier League

Referee: Graham Scott

Man City

T S S T S

3–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

U T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

4,2

3,2

Scored

3,2

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 73%

78%

67%

Both score Ø 56%

44%

67%

Average goals

4,2

3,1

Scored

3,2

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

63% Possession 37%

25 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 5

8 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 6

13 Corners 7

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 5

1 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 3. · Aston Villa 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	8	1	0	+14	25
2	Leicester	10	6	2	2	+17	20
3	Man City	9	6	1	2	+20	19
4	Chelsea	9	5	2	2	+5	17
5	Arsenal	9	4	3	2	+1	15
6	Crystal Palace	9	4	2	3	-2	14
7	Tottenham	9	3	3	3	+2	12
8	Burnley	9	3	3	3	+1	12
9	Sheffield United	9	3	3	3	+1	12
10	Bournemouth	9	3	3	3	+0	12
11	West Ham	9	3	3	3	-2	12
12	Aston Villa	9	3	2	4	+2	11
13	Wolves	9	2	5	2	+0	11
14	Man United	9	2	4	3	+1	10
15	Everton	9	3	1	5	-5	10
16	Brighton	9	2	3	4	-3	9
17	Newcastle	9	2	2	5	-9	8
18	Southampton	10	2	2	6	-16	8
19	Norwich	9	2	1	6	-11	7
20	Watford	9	0	4	5	-16	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+8	12
3	Tottenham	5	3	1	1	+6	10
4	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+3	10
5	Burnley	4	3	0	1	+3	9
6	Everton	5	3	0	2	+0	9
7	Man United	5	2	2	1	+4	8
8	Aston Villa	5	2	2	1	+2	8
9	Chelsea	5	2	2	1	+2	8
10	Crystal Palace	5	2	2	1	+1	8
11	Man City	4	2	1	1	+10	7
12	Bournemouth	5	1	3	1	+0	6
13	Wolves	5	1	3	1	-1	6
14	Sheffield United	5	2	0	3	-1	6
15	Norwich	4	2	0	2	-2	6
16	West Ham	4	2	0	2	-2	6
17	Brighton	4	1	2	1	+1	5
18	Newcastle	4	1	2	1	+0	5
19	Watford	4	0	2	2	-5	2
20	Southampton	5	0	1	4	-15	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+6	13
2	Man City	5	4	0	1	+10	12
3	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Leicester	5	2	1	2	+8	7
5	Southampton	5	2	1	2	-1	7
6	Sheffield United	4	1	3	0	+2	6
7	West Ham	5	1	3	1	+0	6
8	Bournemouth	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Crystal Palace	4	2	0	2	-3	6
10	Wolves	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Arsenal	5	1	2	2	-2	5
12	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-4	4
13	Aston Villa	4	1	0	3	+0	3
14	Burnley	5	0	3	2	-2	3
15	Newcastle	5	1	0	4	-9	3
16	Man United	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	Tottenham	4	0	2	2	-4	2
18	Watford	5	0	2	3	-11	2
19	Everton	4	0	1	3	-5	1
20	Norwich	5	0	1	4	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.