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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Watford

T T U U U

1–2

Full-time

Chelsea

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

0,7

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,7

4,0

Scored

0,5

2,8

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+1,7

This season — Premier League · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 30%

60%

Points per game

0,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

40%

70%

Both score Ø 55%

40%

70%

Average goals

2,6

3,9

Scored

0,5

2,3

Conceded

2,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

-1,6

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

32% Possession 68%

12 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 10

4 Blocked shots 4

8 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 6

8 Free kicks against 5

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 20. · Chelsea 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	10	1	0	+16	31
2	Man City	11	8	1	2	+24	25
3	Leicester	10	6	2	2	+17	20
4	Chelsea	10	6	2	2	+7	20
5	Arsenal	11	4	5	2	+1	17
6	Sheffield United	11	4	4	3	+4	16
7	Bournemouth	11	4	4	3	+1	16
8	Brighton	11	4	3	4	+0	15
9	Crystal Palace	10	4	3	3	-2	15
10	Man United	11	3	4	4	+2	13
11	Wolves	11	2	7	2	+0	13
12	West Ham	11	3	4	4	-3	13
13	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	+1	12
14	Burnley	11	3	3	5	-4	12
15	Newcastle	11	3	3	5	-8	12
16	Aston Villa	11	3	2	6	-2	11
17	Everton	10	3	1	6	-6	10
18	Southampton	11	2	2	7	-17	8
19	Norwich	11	2	1	8	-15	7
20	Watford	10	0	5	5	-16	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Man City	6	4	1	1	+14	13
3	Leicester	5	4	1	0	+9	13
4	Arsenal	6	3	3	0	+3	12
5	Brighton	6	3	2	1	+4	11
6	Tottenham	5	3	1	1	+6	10
7	Sheffield United	6	3	0	3	+2	9
8	Bournemouth	6	2	3	1	+1	9
9	Burnley	5	3	0	2	+1	9
10	Everton	5	3	0	2	+0	9
11	Man United	5	2	2	1	+4	8
12	Chelsea	5	2	2	1	+2	8
13	Aston Villa	6	2	2	2	+1	8
14	Crystal Palace	5	2	2	1	+1	8
15	West Ham	6	2	1	3	-3	7
16	Newcastle	5	1	3	1	+0	6
17	Wolves	5	1	3	1	-1	6
18	Norwich	5	2	0	3	-4	6
19	Watford	5	0	3	2	-5	3
20	Southampton	5	0	1	4	-15	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	6	5	1	0	+7	16
2	Man City	5	4	0	1	+10	12
3	Chelsea	5	4	0	1	+5	12
4	Leicester	5	2	1	2	+8	7
5	Sheffield United	5	1	4	0	+2	7
6	Wolves	6	1	4	1	+1	7
7	Bournemouth	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Southampton	6	2	1	3	-2	7
9	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	-3	7
10	West Ham	5	1	3	1	+0	6
11	Newcastle	6	2	0	4	-8	6
12	Arsenal	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	Man United	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	Aston Villa	5	1	0	4	-3	3
16	Burnley	6	0	3	3	-5	3
17	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	-5	2
18	Watford	5	0	2	3	-11	2
19	Everton	5	0	1	4	-6	1
20	Norwich	6	0	1	5	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.