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Premier League

Referee: Michael Oliver

Burnley

U S U S T

2–4

Full-time

Chelsea

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

1,2

2,5

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,3

This season — Premier League · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 45%

33%

56%

Points per game

1,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

56%

67%

Both score Ø 62%

56%

67%

Average goals

2,6

3,7

Scored

1,3

2,1

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

36% Possession 64%

13 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 11. · Chelsea 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	8	1	0	+14	25
2	Man City	10	7	1	2	+23	22
3	Leicester	10	6	2	2	+17	20
4	Chelsea	9	5	2	2	+5	17
5	Arsenal	9	4	3	2	+1	15
6	Crystal Palace	9	4	2	3	-2	14
7	Sheffield United	10	3	4	3	+1	13
8	Bournemouth	10	3	4	3	+0	13
9	West Ham	10	3	4	3	-2	13
10	Tottenham	9	3	3	3	+2	12
11	Burnley	9	3	3	3	+1	12
12	Brighton	10	3	3	4	-2	12
13	Wolves	9	2	5	2	+0	11
14	Aston Villa	10	3	2	5	-1	11
15	Man United	9	2	4	3	+1	10
16	Everton	10	3	1	6	-6	10
17	Newcastle	9	2	2	5	-9	8
18	Southampton	10	2	2	6	-16	8
19	Norwich	9	2	1	6	-11	7
20	Watford	10	0	5	5	-16	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+8	12
3	Man City	5	3	1	1	+13	10
4	Tottenham	5	3	1	1	+6	10
5	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+3	10
6	Burnley	4	3	0	1	+3	9
7	Everton	5	3	0	2	+0	9
8	Man United	5	2	2	1	+4	8
9	Brighton	5	2	2	1	+2	8
10	Aston Villa	5	2	2	1	+2	8
11	Chelsea	5	2	2	1	+2	8
12	Crystal Palace	5	2	2	1	+1	8
13	West Ham	5	2	1	2	-2	7
14	Bournemouth	5	1	3	1	+0	6
15	Wolves	5	1	3	1	-1	6
16	Sheffield United	5	2	0	3	-1	6
17	Norwich	4	2	0	2	-2	6
18	Newcastle	4	1	2	1	+0	5
19	Watford	5	0	3	2	-5	3
20	Southampton	5	0	1	4	-15	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+6	13
2	Man City	5	4	0	1	+10	12
3	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Leicester	5	2	1	2	+8	7
5	Sheffield United	5	1	4	0	+2	7
6	Bournemouth	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Southampton	5	2	1	2	-1	7
8	West Ham	5	1	3	1	+0	6
9	Crystal Palace	4	2	0	2	-3	6
10	Wolves	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Arsenal	5	1	2	2	-2	5
12	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-4	4
13	Burnley	5	0	3	2	-2	3
14	Aston Villa	5	1	0	4	-3	3
15	Newcastle	5	1	0	4	-9	3
16	Man United	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	Tottenham	4	0	2	2	-4	2
18	Watford	5	0	2	3	-11	2
19	Everton	5	0	1	4	-6	1
20	Norwich	5	0	1	4	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.