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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Reichel

Hamburg

S S U S T

0–5

Full-time

Mainz

S T S S U

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

4,2

Scored

1,7

2,8

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

2,0

0,0

Scored

0,0

Conceded

2,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

54% Possession 46%

8 Shots 17

1 Shots on target 8

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hamburg 17. · Mainz 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Freiburg	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.8	6
2	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.6	6
3	Elversberg	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
4	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	+4	+3.3	4
5	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	+3	+0.6	3
6	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.6	3
7	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.9	3
8	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	-1	-3.3	3
9	Werder Bremen	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.8	3
10	FC Koln	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.1	3
11	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
12	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
13	Paderborn	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
14	Schalke 04	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.6	1
15	Union Berlin	2	0	1	1	-4	+0.4	1
16	Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.1	0
17	Hamburg	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.6	0
18	M'gladbach	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+4	+3.3	3
2	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
3	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.8	3
4	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
5	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.6	3
6	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.9	3
7	Werder Bremen	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
8	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
9	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
10	Elversberg	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.6	3
11	Union Berlin	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
12	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
13	Schalke 04	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
14	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
15	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
16	Paderborn	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elversberg	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
2	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
3	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
4	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
5	Paderborn	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
6	Bayern Munich	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
7	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
8	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.6	0
9	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
10	Hamburg	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.6	0
11	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.8	0
12	FC Koln	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
13	Schalke 04	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.6	0
14	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.9	0
15	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-4	-3.3	0
16	Union Berlin	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.