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Bundesliga

Referee: Robin Braun

Mainz

T S S S T

1–1

Full-time

Hamburg

U U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Hamburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 22/21 matches

Win Ø 26%

23%

29%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

55%

52%

Both score Ø 54%

55%

52%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,53 xG 0,70

45% Possession 55%

17 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 14. · Hamburg 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	22	18	3	1	+63	+44.5	57
2	Dortmund	22	15	6	1	+27	+15.5	51
3	Hoffenheim	22	14	3	5	+19	-0.5	45
4	Stuttgart	22	13	3	6	+12	+5.1	42
5	RB Leipzig	22	12	4	6	+12	+10.4	40
6	Leverkusen	21	12	3	6	+16	+11.6	39
7	Ein Frankfurt	22	8	7	7	-2	-2.6	31
8	Freiburg	22	8	6	8	-4	+2.8	30
9	Hamburg	21	6	7	8	-7	-5.5	25
10	Union Berlin	22	6	7	9	-9	+1.8	25
11	Augsburg	22	7	4	11	-14	-14.7	25
12	FC Koln	22	6	5	11	-6	-4.7	23
13	M'gladbach	22	5	7	10	-12	-5.5	22
14	Mainz	22	5	6	11	-12	-9.5	21
15	Wolfsburg	22	5	5	12	-15	-11.6	20
16	Werder Bremen	22	4	7	11	-20	-10.3	19
17	St Pauli	22	4	5	13	-19	-12.9	17
18	Heidenheim	22	3	4	15	-29	-13.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	11	9	2	0	+18	+12.1	29
2	Bayern Munich	11	9	1	1	+35	+23.1	28
3	Stuttgart	11	8	2	1	+5	+3.4	26
4	Hoffenheim	11	8	0	3	+14	+3.7	24
5	Leverkusen	11	7	1	3	+14	+12.4	22
6	RB Leipzig	11	7	1	3	+10	+8.2	22
7	Freiburg	10	6	3	1	+8	+9.4	21
8	Hamburg	11	5	4	2	+5	+1.9	19
9	Augsburg	12	5	3	4	-4	-7.3	18
10	Ein Frankfurt	11	5	2	4	+2	+3.0	17
11	FC Koln	11	4	2	5	+2	+1.9	14
12	Union Berlin	11	3	5	3	-1	+3.1	14
13	Werder Bremen	11	3	4	4	-9	+2.0	13
14	Mainz	11	3	3	5	-1	+2.1	12
15	St Pauli	10	3	3	4	-6	-1.8	12
16	M'gladbach	11	2	4	5	-8	-4.3	10
17	Wolfsburg	11	2	3	6	-6	-2.9	9
18	Heidenheim	11	2	3	6	-14	-7.8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	9	2	0	+28	+21.4	29
2	Dortmund	11	6	4	1	+9	+3.4	22
3	Hoffenheim	11	6	3	2	+5	-4.1	21
4	RB Leipzig	11	5	3	3	+2	+2.2	18
5	Leverkusen	10	5	2	3	+2	-0.8	17
6	Stuttgart	11	5	1	5	+7	+1.7	16
7	Ein Frankfurt	11	3	5	3	-4	-5.6	14
8	M'gladbach	11	3	3	5	-4	-1.3	12
9	Union Berlin	11	3	2	6	-8	-1.3	11
10	Wolfsburg	11	3	2	6	-9	-8.6	11
11	FC Koln	11	2	3	6	-8	-6.6	9
12	Mainz	11	2	3	6	-11	-11.6	9
13	Freiburg	12	2	3	7	-12	-6.6	9
14	Augsburg	10	2	1	7	-10	-7.4	7
15	Werder Bremen	11	1	3	7	-11	-12.3	6
16	Hamburg	10	1	3	6	-12	-7.5	6
17	St Pauli	12	1	2	9	-13	-11.2	5
18	Heidenheim	11	1	1	9	-15	-6.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.