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La Liga

Referee: Antonio Mateu

Barcelona

T S S T S

0–0

Full-time

Ath Madrid

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,3

Scored

2,2

1,7

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,0

This season — La Liga · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 68%

68%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

65%

38%

Both score Ø 50%

59%

41%

Average goals

3,3

2,4

Scored

2,4

1,8

Conceded

1,0

0,6

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

59% Possession 41%

12 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 7

5 Corners 7

3 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 26

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 2. · Ath Madrid 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	34	23	7	4	+39	76
2	Barcelona	34	23	5	6	+47	74
3	Real Madrid	34	22	8	4	+34	74
4	Sevilla	34	22	4	8	+22	70
5	Sociedad	35	15	11	9	+18	56
6	Villarreal	34	13	13	8	+13	52
7	Betis	34	14	9	11	-3	51
8	Ath Bilbao	34	11	12	11	+8	45
9	Granada	34	13	6	15	-12	45
10	Celta	34	11	11	12	-5	44
11	Osasuna	34	10	10	14	-10	40
12	Cadiz	34	10	10	14	-20	40
13	Levante	35	9	12	14	-10	39
14	Valencia	34	8	12	14	-8	36
15	Getafe	34	8	10	16	-14	34
16	Alaves	35	7	11	17	-24	32
17	Valladolid	34	5	16	13	-14	31
18	Huesca	34	6	12	16	-18	30
19	Elche	35	6	12	17	-23	30
20	Eibar	34	5	11	18	-20	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	17	13	3	1	+28	42
2	Real Madrid	17	12	2	3	+19	38
3	Barcelona	17	11	4	2	+25	37
4	Sevilla	17	12	1	4	+14	37
5	Sociedad	18	8	6	4	+10	30
6	Granada	17	9	3	5	+3	30
7	Ath Bilbao	17	8	5	4	+11	29
8	Betis	17	8	5	4	+4	29
9	Villarreal	17	7	6	4	+4	27
10	Celta	17	8	3	6	+0	27
11	Valencia	17	6	7	4	+5	25
12	Osasuna	17	6	5	6	-2	23
13	Levante	17	5	7	5	-3	22
14	Getafe	17	5	6	6	+2	21
15	Alaves	18	5	6	7	-6	21
16	Elche	17	4	8	5	-5	20
17	Huesca	17	4	6	7	-5	18
18	Cadiz	17	4	5	8	-12	17
19	Valladolid	17	3	7	7	-8	16
20	Eibar	17	2	6	9	-8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	12	1	4	+22	37
2	Real Madrid	17	10	6	1	+15	36
3	Ath Madrid	17	10	4	3	+11	34
4	Sevilla	17	10	3	4	+8	33
5	Sociedad	17	7	5	5	+8	26
6	Villarreal	17	6	7	4	+9	25
7	Cadiz	17	6	5	6	-8	23
8	Betis	17	6	4	7	-7	22
9	Celta	17	3	8	6	-5	17
10	Levante	18	4	5	9	-7	17
11	Osasuna	17	4	5	8	-8	17
12	Ath Bilbao	17	3	7	7	-3	16
13	Valladolid	17	2	9	6	-6	15
14	Granada	17	4	3	10	-15	15
15	Eibar	17	3	5	9	-12	14
16	Getafe	17	3	4	10	-16	13
17	Huesca	17	2	6	9	-13	12
18	Valencia	17	2	5	10	-13	11
19	Alaves	17	2	5	10	-18	11
20	Elche	18	2	4	12	-18	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.