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La Liga

Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano

Barcelona

S S S S U

2–0

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 83%

83%

Points per game

2,7

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

4,3

2,2

Scored

3,0

1,8

Conceded

1,3

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,5

This season — La Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 65%

70%

60%

Points per game

2,3

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

63%

23%

Both score Ø 47%

60%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,1

Scored

2,6

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,6

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

64% Possession 36%

21 Shots 9

10 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

5 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Barcelona 1. · Ath Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	30	21	7	2	+48	70
2	Ath Madrid	30	18	8	4	+26	62
3	Real Madrid	31	19	3	9	+18	60
4	Getafe	30	12	11	7	+10	47
5	Sevilla	30	13	7	10	+12	46
6	Valencia	31	10	16	5	+7	46
7	Alaves	30	12	8	10	-6	44
8	Ath Bilbao	30	10	13	7	-1	43
9	Sociedad	30	10	10	10	+1	40
10	Betis	30	11	7	12	-5	40
11	Eibar	31	9	12	10	-2	39
12	Leganes	30	10	9	11	-4	39
13	Espanol	31	10	8	13	-10	38
14	Girona	31	8	10	13	-10	34
15	Levante	30	8	8	14	-12	32
16	Villarreal	30	6	12	12	-5	30
17	Valladolid	30	7	9	14	-17	30
18	Celta	30	7	8	15	-10	29
19	Vallecano	31	7	6	18	-20	27
20	Huesca	30	5	8	17	-20	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	15	12	2	1	+18	38
2	Barcelona	15	11	3	1	+28	36
3	Real Madrid	16	11	1	4	+15	34
4	Sevilla	15	9	3	3	+14	30
5	Eibar	16	8	5	3	+10	29
6	Ath Bilbao	16	7	7	2	+4	28
7	Leganes	15	7	6	2	+6	27
8	Espanol	15	8	2	5	+0	26
9	Getafe	14	8	1	5	+9	25
10	Valencia	16	5	10	1	+9	25
11	Alaves	14	6	6	2	+2	24
12	Betis	15	6	4	5	-2	22
13	Sociedad	15	5	5	5	+1	20
14	Celta	15	5	4	6	+1	19
15	Vallecano	16	4	5	7	-7	17
16	Villarreal	16	3	7	6	+0	16
17	Levante	14	4	4	6	-7	16
18	Huesca	15	3	5	7	-5	14
19	Valladolid	14	3	4	7	-8	13
20	Girona	16	2	6	8	-10	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	10	4	1	+20	34
2	Real Madrid	15	8	2	5	+3	26
3	Ath Madrid	15	6	6	3	+8	24
4	Getafe	16	4	10	2	+1	22
5	Girona	15	6	4	5	+0	22
6	Valencia	15	5	6	4	-2	21
7	Sociedad	15	5	5	5	+0	20
8	Alaves	16	6	2	8	-8	20
9	Betis	15	5	3	7	-3	18
10	Valladolid	16	4	5	7	-9	17
11	Sevilla	15	4	4	7	-2	16
12	Levante	16	4	4	8	-5	16
13	Ath Bilbao	14	3	6	5	-5	15
14	Villarreal	14	3	5	6	-5	14
15	Espanol	16	2	6	8	-10	12
16	Leganes	15	3	3	9	-10	12
17	Celta	15	2	4	9	-11	10
18	Eibar	15	1	7	7	-12	10
19	Vallecano	15	3	1	11	-13	10
20	Huesca	15	2	3	10	-15	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.