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La Liga

Referee: Juan Martinez Munuera

Sevilla

U T T T T

1–0

Full-time

Las Palmas

U U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sevilla Las Palmas

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

3,5

1,5

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

2,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 3/4 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 63%

100%

25%

Average goals

4,3

1,0

Scored

1,7

0,3

Conceded

2,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,75 xG 1,06

44% Possession 56%

26 Shots 12

9 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

7 Corners 3

6 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sevilla 20. · Las Palmas 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	5	4	1	0	+9	+7.3	13
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	+3.7	12
3	Ath Bilbao	5	3	1	1	+5	+5.0	10
4	Girona	4	3	1	0	+5	+0.8	10
5	Valencia	5	3	0	2	+3	+2.4	9
6	Vallecano	5	3	0	2	-2	+1.0	9
7	Ath Madrid	4	2	1	1	+6	+2.9	7
8	Cadiz	5	2	1	2	-2	-1.4	7
9	Getafe	5	2	1	2	-2	-3.1	7
10	Betis	5	2	1	2	-5	-3.9	7
11	Sociedad	4	1	3	0	+2	+1.1	6
12	Osasuna	5	2	0	3	-1	-1.3	6
13	Villarreal	5	2	0	3	-2	-2.2	6
14	Alaves	5	2	0	3	-2	-2.1	6
15	Mallorca	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.5	5
16	Celta	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.6	4
17	Granada	4	1	0	3	-5	-5.2	3
18	Las Palmas	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.8	2
19	Almeria	5	0	1	4	-6	-0.6	1
20	Sevilla	3	0	0	3	-3	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cadiz	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.5	7
2	Getafe	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.0	7
3	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+7	+3.9	6
4	Girona	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.7	6
5	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+3	+4.5	6
6	Valencia	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.6	6
7	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.8	6
8	Sociedad	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.0	5
9	Betis	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.0	4
10	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
11	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.4	3
12	Villarreal	3	1	0	2	-1	-2.0	3
13	Granada	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.1	3
14	Vallecano	2	1	0	1	-5	-1.0	3
15	Las Palmas	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.8	2
16	Mallorca	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.8	1
17	Sevilla	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.3	0
18	Osasuna	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.5	0
19	Celta	3	0	0	3	-4	+0.5	0
20	Almeria	3	0	0	3	-5	+0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.3	9
2	Barcelona	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.4	7
3	Vallecano	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.0	6
4	Osasuna	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.2	6
5	Ath Madrid	3	1	1	1	+4	+1.5	4
6	Ath Bilbao	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.5	4
7	Celta	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.0	4
8	Girona	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	4
9	Mallorca	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.3	4
10	Valencia	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
11	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.2	3
12	Betis	3	1	0	2	-6	-3.9	3
13	Sociedad	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Almeria	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
15	Sevilla	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
16	Las Palmas	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.0	0
17	Granada	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.1	0
18	Getafe	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.1	0
19	Alaves	3	0	0	3	-4	-3.9	0
20	Cadiz	2	0	0	2	-5	-4.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.