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La Liga
Referee: César Soto
Alaves
T U S S T
1–4
Full-time
Real Madrid
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,3
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,5
Scored
1,5
1,8
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

41% Possession 59%
11 Shots 19
4 Shots on target 7
4 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
0 Corners 4
1 Offside 2
14 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

23. Jan -21 Alaves – Real Madrid 1–4 28. Nov -20 Real Madrid – Alaves 1–2 10. Jul -20 Real Madrid – Alaves 2–0 30. Nov -19 Alaves – Real Madrid 1–2 3. Feb -19 Real Madrid – Alaves 3–0

Match report

Alaves Real Madrid
Manu García 🟨
35′
Half-time 0–1
48′
⚽ K. Benzema 0–1
E. Hazard
53′
🟨 Gareth Bale
56′
⚽ Nacho 0–2
L. Modrić
J. Guidetti 🔁
↦ Manu García
59′
M. Loum 🔁
↦ Pere Pons
59′
62′
⚽ K. Benzema 0–3
64′
🟨 Thibaut Courtois
1–3 Joselu ⚽
65′
66′
🔁 Vinícius Júnior
↦ E. Hazard
Iván Martín 🔁
↦ Edgar Méndez
68′
F. Pellistri 🔁
↦ Luis Rioja
68′
68′
🔁 Rodrygo
↦ G. Bale
Toni Moya 🔁
↦ Pina
82′
88′
🔁 L. Jović
↦ K. Benzema
88′
🔁 Isco
↦ F. Valverde
88′
🔁 Asensio
↦ L. Modrić
92′
⚽ Vinícius Júnior 1–4
D. Alaba
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Alaves

4-2-3-1
1 Pacheco G
5 Laguardia D
22 F. Lejeune D
3 Rubén Duarte D
21 Martín Aguirregabiria D
17 Edgar Méndez M
8 Pina M
20 Pere Pons M
14 Manu García M
9 Joselu F
11 Luis Rioja M
Bench (12)
10 J. Guidetti
6 M. Loum
19 Iván Martín
18 F. Pellistri
15 Toni Moya
2 Alberto Rodríguez
7 Lucas Pérez
26 A. Abqar
12 Saúl García
13 Sivera
27 Javi López
29 T. Hara

Coach: Javi Calleja

Real Madrid

4-3-3
1 T. Courtois G
4 D. Alaba D
6 Nacho D
3 Éder Militão D
10 L. Modrić M
14 Casemiro M
17 Lucas Vázquez D
15 F. Valverde M
9 K. Benzema F
18 G. Bale F
7 E. Hazard F
Bench (10)
20 Vinícius Júnior
21 Rodrygo
16 L. Jović
22 Isco
11 Asensio
13 A. Lunin
19 Odriozola
40 Toni Fuidias
27 Antonio Blanco
35 Miguel Gutiérrez

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
7,08
🔒
U
4,57
🔒
B ✓
1,46
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,76
🔒
U2,5
2,09
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

César Soto · 119 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.