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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernández

Alaves

S U T T T

1–4

Full-time

Real Madrid

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,3

This season — La Liga · 19/18 matches

Win Ø 41%

21%

61%

Points per game

0,9

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

42%

39%

Both score Ø 54%

58%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

0,9

1,7

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

39% Possession 61%

14 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 7

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alaves 17. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	17	14	2	1	+26	44
2	Real Madrid	18	11	4	3	+15	37
3	Sevilla	19	11	3	5	+10	36
4	Barcelona	18	10	4	4	+20	34
5	Villarreal	20	8	10	2	+9	34
6	Sociedad	20	8	7	5	+13	31
7	Granada	19	8	4	7	-8	28
8	Betis	20	8	3	9	-8	27
9	Cadiz	20	6	6	8	-10	24
10	Levante	19	5	8	6	-1	23
11	Getafe	18	6	5	7	-2	23
12	Celta	19	6	5	8	-7	23
13	Ath Bilbao	18	6	3	9	-1	21
14	Valencia	19	4	8	7	-1	20
15	Valladolid	20	4	8	8	-9	20
16	Eibar	19	4	7	8	-4	19
17	Alaves	19	4	6	9	-8	18
18	Elche	17	3	8	6	-7	17
19	Osasuna	19	3	7	9	-12	16
20	Huesca	20	1	10	9	-15	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	9	8	1	0	+19	25
2	Villarreal	10	5	5	0	+7	20
3	Granada	10	6	2	2	+3	20
4	Sevilla	9	6	1	2	+8	19
5	Barcelona	9	5	3	1	+11	18
6	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	+10	18
7	Levante	9	4	4	1	+4	16
8	Ath Bilbao	9	5	0	4	+5	15
9	Celta	9	5	0	4	-2	15
10	Sociedad	10	3	5	2	+5	14
11	Getafe	10	4	2	4	+1	14
12	Betis	9	4	2	3	+0	14
13	Valencia	10	2	5	3	+1	11
14	Alaves	10	2	4	4	-3	10
15	Cadiz	10	2	4	4	-4	10
16	Valladolid	10	2	4	4	-5	10
17	Osasuna	9	2	3	4	-5	9
18	Elche	9	1	5	3	-5	8
19	Huesca	10	1	5	4	-5	8
20	Eibar	10	1	4	5	-5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	8	6	1	1	+7	19
2	Real Madrid	10	5	4	1	+5	19
3	Sociedad	10	5	2	3	+8	17
4	Sevilla	10	5	2	3	+2	17
5	Barcelona	9	5	1	3	+9	16
6	Villarreal	10	3	5	2	+2	14
7	Cadiz	10	4	2	4	-6	14
8	Betis	11	4	1	6	-8	13
9	Eibar	9	3	3	3	+1	12
10	Valladolid	10	2	4	4	-4	10
11	Valencia	9	2	3	4	-2	9
12	Elche	8	2	3	3	-2	9
13	Getafe	8	2	3	3	-3	9
14	Celta	10	1	5	4	-5	8
15	Alaves	9	2	2	5	-5	8
16	Granada	9	2	2	5	-11	8
17	Levante	10	1	4	5	-5	7
18	Osasuna	10	1	4	5	-7	7
19	Ath Bilbao	9	1	3	5	-6	6
20	Huesca	10	0	5	5	-10	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.