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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Man United

S T T U T

3–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,7

2,2

Scored

0,3

1,3

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,6

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

1,0

2,1

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,13 xG 1,66

46% Possession 54%

13 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 6

9 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 8. · Aston Villa 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	19	12	6	1	+23	+15.6	42
2	Arsenal	18	12	4	2	+20	+18.7	40
3	Aston Villa	18	12	3	3	+16	+8.2	39
4	Tottenham	18	11	3	4	+13	+0.4	36
5	Man City	17	10	4	3	+20	+15.9	34
6	West Ham	18	9	3	6	+1	-4.8	30
7	Newcastle	19	9	2	8	+12	+12.3	29
8	Man United	18	9	1	8	-5	-3.2	28
9	Brighton	18	7	6	5	+3	+2.6	27
10	Everton	18	8	2	8	+1	+5.4	26
11	Bournemouth	18	7	4	7	-5	-3.6	25
12	Chelsea	18	6	4	8	+1	+10.1	22
13	Wolves	18	6	4	8	-7	-7.9	22
14	Fulham	19	6	3	10	-8	-9.9	21
15	Brentford	17	5	4	8	+0	+8.0	19
16	Crystal Palace	18	4	6	8	-8	-2.2	18
17	Nott'm Forest	19	4	5	10	-12	-6.9	17
18	Luton	18	4	3	11	-13	-21.0	15
19	Burnley	19	3	2	14	-20	-16.0	11
20	Sheffield United	19	2	3	14	-32	-22.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	9	8	1	0	+20	+10.2	25
2	Newcastle	10	8	0	2	+16	+13.9	24
3	Liverpool	9	7	2	0	+16	+13.3	23
4	Arsenal	9	7	2	0	+14	+12.3	23
5	Man City	8	5	3	0	+13	+5.6	18
6	Tottenham	9	6	0	3	+5	+1.3	18
7	West Ham	9	5	2	2	+7	-2.3	17
8	Brighton	9	4	4	1	+6	+5.0	16
9	Fulham	9	5	0	4	+6	+3.6	15
10	Wolves	9	4	3	2	-1	-3.1	15
11	Man United	9	5	0	4	-4	+2.7	15
12	Brentford	9	3	3	3	+2	+4.8	12
13	Chelsea	9	3	3	3	+2	+7.7	12
14	Bournemouth	9	3	3	3	-1	-1.3	12
15	Everton	9	3	1	5	+1	+7.1	10
16	Nott'm Forest	9	2	3	4	-2	-0.1	9
17	Luton	9	2	2	5	-3	-4.8	8
18	Sheffield United	10	2	1	7	-14	-9.3	7
19	Crystal Palace	9	1	3	5	-5	-0.7	6
20	Burnley	10	1	0	9	-14	-5.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	10	5	4	1	+7	+2.3	19
2	Tottenham	9	5	3	1	+8	-0.9	18
3	Arsenal	9	5	2	2	+6	+6.5	17
4	Man City	9	5	1	3	+7	+10.4	16
5	Everton	9	5	1	3	+0	-1.7	16
6	Aston Villa	9	4	2	3	-4	-2.0	14
7	Man United	9	4	1	4	-1	-5.9	13
8	Bournemouth	9	4	1	4	-4	-2.3	13
9	West Ham	9	4	1	4	-6	-2.5	13
10	Crystal Palace	9	3	3	3	-3	-1.5	12
11	Brighton	9	3	2	4	-3	-2.4	11
12	Chelsea	9	3	1	5	-1	+2.5	10
13	Burnley	9	2	2	5	-6	-10.2	8
14	Nott'm Forest	10	2	2	6	-10	-6.8	8
15	Brentford	8	2	1	5	-2	+3.2	7
16	Wolves	9	2	1	6	-6	-4.8	7
17	Luton	9	2	1	6	-10	-16.3	7
18	Fulham	10	1	3	6	-14	-13.5	6
19	Newcastle	9	1	2	6	-4	-1.6	5
20	Sheffield United	9	0	2	7	-18	-12.7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.