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Premier League

Referee: J Gillett

Aston Villa

S S S U S

1–0

Full-time

Arsenal

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 92%

83%

100%

Points per game

2,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,8

Scored

2,0

3,0

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 70%

67%

73%

Points per game

2,1

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

73%

67%

Both score Ø 60%

67%

53%

Average goals

3,6

3,1

Scored

2,3

2,2

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,57 xG 1,40

39% Possession 61%

10 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 3

1 Offside 4

16 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 3. · Arsenal 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	11	4	1	+21	+12.7	37
2	Arsenal	15	11	3	1	+19	+16.5	36
3	Aston Villa	15	10	2	3	+14	+7.9	32
4	Man City	15	9	3	3	+19	+14.9	30
5	Tottenham	15	8	3	4	+7	-1.6	27
6	Man United	16	9	0	7	-3	-1.4	27
7	Newcastle	15	8	2	5	+15	+12.2	26
8	Brighton	16	7	5	4	+5	+4.4	26
9	West Ham	15	7	3	5	+1	-4.4	24
10	Everton	15	6	2	7	-2	+4.1	20
11	Chelsea	15	5	4	6	+2	+6.9	19
12	Brentford	16	5	4	7	+1	+8.9	19
13	Wolves	16	5	4	7	-5	-6.7	19
14	Bournemouth	16	5	4	7	-9	-5.7	19
15	Fulham	15	5	3	7	-5	-7.2	18
16	Crystal Palace	16	4	4	8	-8	-2.6	16
17	Nott'm Forest	16	3	5	8	-11	-7.1	14
18	Luton	15	2	3	10	-14	-17.8	9
19	Burnley	16	2	2	12	-18	-13.1	8
20	Sheffield United	16	2	2	12	-29	-21.0	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	7	7	0	0	+19	+10.7	21
2	Liverpool	7	7	0	0	+16	+11.4	21
3	Newcastle	8	7	0	1	+15	+11.7	21
4	Arsenal	8	6	2	0	+12	+10.6	20
5	Man City	7	5	2	0	+13	+5.8	17
6	Brighton	9	4	4	1	+6	+5.0	16
7	Man United	9	5	0	4	-4	+2.7	15
8	Brentford	8	3	3	2	+3	+5.8	12
9	Fulham	7	4	0	3	+3	+1.5	12
10	Tottenham	7	4	0	3	+1	-0.5	12
11	Wolves	8	3	3	2	-2	-2.3	12
12	West Ham	7	3	2	2	+2	-3.0	11
13	Nott'm Forest	7	2	3	2	+1	+0.8	9
14	Chelsea	8	2	3	3	+0	+5.0	9
15	Bournemouth	8	2	3	3	-4	-2.8	9
16	Everton	8	2	1	5	-1	+6.9	7
17	Sheffield United	9	2	1	6	-13	-11.3	7
18	Luton	7	1	2	4	-3	-3.5	5
19	Crystal Palace	8	1	2	5	-5	-0.8	5
20	Burnley	8	1	0	7	-10	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	7	5	1	1	+7	+5.9	16
2	Liverpool	9	4	4	1	+5	+1.3	16
3	Tottenham	8	4	3	1	+6	-1.1	15
4	Man City	8	4	1	3	+6	+9.1	13
5	West Ham	8	4	1	3	-1	-1.4	13
6	Everton	7	4	1	2	-1	-2.7	13
7	Man United	7	4	0	3	+1	-4.0	12
8	Crystal Palace	8	3	2	3	-3	-1.7	11
9	Aston Villa	8	3	2	3	-5	-2.9	11
10	Chelsea	7	3	1	3	+2	+2.0	10
11	Brighton	7	3	1	3	-1	-0.6	10
12	Bournemouth	8	3	1	4	-5	-2.9	10
13	Brentford	8	2	1	5	-2	+3.2	7
14	Wolves	8	2	1	5	-3	-4.4	7
15	Fulham	8	1	3	4	-8	-8.8	6
16	Newcastle	7	1	2	4	+0	+0.5	5
17	Burnley	8	1	2	5	-8	-9.1	5
18	Nott'm Forest	9	1	2	6	-12	-7.9	5
19	Luton	8	1	1	6	-11	-14.3	4
20	Sheffield United	7	0	1	6	-16	-9.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.