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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernandez

Villarreal

S T U T S

3–4

Full-time

Barcelona

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Barcelona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,0

1,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,86 xG 3,07

39% Possession 61%

13 Shots 21

6 Shots on target 11

4 Blocked shots 6

7 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 6

5 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 13. · Barcelona 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.3	9
2	Girona	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.8	7
3	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.6	6
4	Valencia	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.4	6
5	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.1	4
6	Barcelona	2	1	1	0	+2	+3.2	4
7	Betis	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
8	Cadiz	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.6	4
9	Alaves	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.8	3
10	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.3	3
11	Osasuna	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.3	3
12	Sociedad	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.5	3
13	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.4	3
14	Granada	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.6	3
15	Las Palmas	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.8	2
16	Mallorca	3	0	1	2	-2	+0.3	1
17	Celta	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.3	1
18	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.6	1
19	Almeria	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.6	1
20	Sevilla	3	0	0	3	-3	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cadiz	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.7	4
2	Girona	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.7	3
3	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
4	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.3	3
5	Alaves	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
6	Valencia	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
7	Granada	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.1	3
8	Sociedad	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.6	2
9	Las Palmas	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.8	2
10	Betis	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
11	Getafe	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
12	Villarreal	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
13	Mallorca	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
14	Sevilla	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.3	0
15	Ath Bilbao	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
16	Osasuna	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
17	Celta	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.1	0
18	Almeria	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.3	9
2	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.6	6
3	Girona	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	4
4	Osasuna	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.0	3
5	Ath Bilbao	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
6	Betis	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
7	Valencia	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
8	Villarreal	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
9	Celta	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
10	Almeria	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
11	Ath Madrid	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
12	Barcelona	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
13	Sociedad	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Mallorca	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.9	1
15	Sevilla	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
16	Las Palmas	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
17	Alaves	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
18	Granada	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
19	Cadiz	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.3	0
20	Getafe	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.