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Serie A

Referee: D Orsato

Roma

S T S U U

2–1

Full-time

Milan

T T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

This season — Serie A · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 38%

38%

Points per game

1,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

38%

50%

Both score Ø 57%

63%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,4

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%

10 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 8

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 17

4 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 7. · Milan 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	9	7	2	0	+8	23
2	Inter	9	7	1	1	+11	22
3	Atalanta	9	6	2	1	+14	20
4	Napoli	9	5	2	2	+7	17
5	Cagliari	9	4	3	2	+5	15
6	Parma	9	4	1	4	+2	13
7	Roma	8	3	4	1	+2	13
8	Lazio	8	3	3	2	+7	12
9	Fiorentina	8	3	3	2	+2	12
10	Bologna	9	3	3	3	+0	12
11	Torino	9	3	2	4	-1	11
12	Milan	8	3	1	4	-3	10
13	Udinese	9	3	1	5	-8	10
14	Sassuolo	8	3	0	5	-1	9
15	Verona	9	2	3	4	-2	9
16	Lecce	9	2	2	5	-8	8
17	Genoa	9	2	2	5	-9	8
18	Brescia	8	2	1	5	-4	7
19	Spal	9	2	1	6	-9	7
20	Sampdoria	9	1	1	7	-13	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	4	4	0	0	+5	12
2	Inter	5	3	1	1	+5	10
3	Napoli	4	3	0	1	+4	9
4	Parma	5	3	0	2	+3	9
5	Udinese	5	3	0	2	+0	9
6	Lazio	4	2	2	0	+6	8
7	Torino	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Atalanta	4	2	1	1	+7	7
9	Cagliari	5	2	1	2	+2	7
10	Genoa	5	2	1	2	+1	7
11	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+1	7
12	Bologna	4	2	1	1	+1	7
13	Spal	5	2	1	2	-1	7
14	Sassuolo	4	2	0	2	+2	6
15	Roma	4	1	2	1	+0	5
16	Verona	5	1	2	2	+0	5
17	Milan	4	1	1	2	-3	4
18	Sampdoria	4	1	1	2	-4	4
19	Brescia	3	0	1	2	-2	1
20	Lecce	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Inter	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Juventus	5	3	2	0	+3	11
4	Napoli	5	2	2	1	+3	8
5	Cagliari	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	Roma	4	2	2	0	+2	8
7	Lecce	5	2	1	2	-3	7
8	Milan	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Brescia	5	2	0	3	-2	6
10	Fiorentina	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Bologna	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Lazio	4	1	1	2	+1	4
13	Parma	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Verona	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Torino	4	1	0	3	-2	3
16	Sassuolo	4	1	0	3	-3	3
17	Udinese	4	0	1	3	-8	1
18	Genoa	4	0	1	3	-10	1
19	Spal	4	0	0	4	-8	0
20	Sampdoria	5	0	0	5	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.