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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Orsato

Lazio

S S S S T

1–0

Full-time

Fiorentina

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 57%

57%

Points per game

1,7

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

57%

43%

Both score Ø 50%

57%

43%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,4

2,0

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

39% Possession 61%

13 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 6

4 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 10

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 8. · Fiorentina 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	8	8	0	0	+13	24
2	Napoli	7	5	0	2	+3	15
3	Roma	8	4	2	2	+6	14
4	Fiorentina	7	4	1	2	+9	13
5	Inter	7	4	1	2	+5	13
6	Sassuolo	7	4	1	2	+3	13
7	Parma	8	4	1	3	+1	13
8	Lazio	7	4	0	3	+1	12
9	Torino	8	3	3	2	+0	12
10	Genoa	7	4	0	3	-2	12
11	Sampdoria	7	3	2	2	+7	11
12	Milan	6	2	3	1	+3	9
13	Cagliari	8	2	3	3	-3	9
14	Spal	7	3	0	4	-3	9
15	Udinese	8	2	2	4	-2	8
16	Bologna	8	2	1	5	-6	7
17	Atalanta	7	1	3	3	-1	6
18	Empoli	8	1	2	5	-5	5
19	Chievo	7	0	2	5	-11	2
20	Frosinone	8	0	1	7	-18	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fiorentina	4	4	0	0	+11	12
2	Juventus	4	4	0	0	+7	12
3	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Sassuolo	4	3	0	1	+2	9
5	Genoa	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Roma	4	2	2	0	+6	8
7	Sampdoria	4	2	1	1	+3	7
8	Parma	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Inter	4	2	1	1	+2	7
10	Lazio	3	2	0	1	+3	6
11	Cagliari	4	1	3	0	+2	6
12	Spal	3	2	0	1	+1	6
13	Torino	4	2	0	2	-1	6
14	Bologna	4	2	0	2	-1	6
15	Atalanta	3	1	1	1	+3	4
16	Milan	2	1	1	0	+1	4
17	Empoli	4	1	1	2	-1	4
18	Udinese	4	1	1	2	-2	4
19	Chievo	4	0	1	3	-4	1
20	Frosinone	4	0	1	3	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Inter	3	2	0	1	+3	6
3	Torino	4	1	3	0	+1	6
4	Roma	4	2	0	2	+0	6
5	Parma	4	2	0	2	-1	6
6	Napoli	4	2	0	2	-2	6
7	Lazio	4	2	0	2	-2	6
8	Milan	4	1	2	1	+2	5
9	Sampdoria	3	1	1	1	+4	4
10	Sassuolo	3	1	1	1	+1	4
11	Udinese	4	1	1	2	+0	4
12	Genoa	3	1	0	2	-4	3
13	Spal	4	1	0	3	-4	3
14	Cagliari	4	1	0	3	-5	3
15	Atalanta	4	0	2	2	-4	2
16	Fiorentina	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Empoli	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Bologna	4	0	1	3	-5	1
19	Chievo	3	0	1	2	-7	1
20	Frosinone	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.