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Serie A

Referee: J Sacchi

Fiorentina

T U S T U

2–3

Full-time

Atalanta

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,3

Scored

1,8

2,5

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,7

This season — Serie A · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 42%

24%

59%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

52%

66%

Both score Ø 61%

55%

66%

Average goals

2,8

3,6

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

1,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

39% Possession 61%

8 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 9

3 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

0 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 15. · Atalanta 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	30	23	5	2	+42	74
2	Milan	30	19	6	5	+22	63
3	Juventus	30	18	8	4	+34	62
4	Napoli	30	19	2	9	+31	59
5	Atalanta	29	17	7	5	+32	58
6	Lazio	29	17	4	8	+8	55
7	Roma	30	16	6	8	+10	54
8	Verona	30	11	8	11	+3	41
9	Sassuolo	29	10	10	9	+0	40
10	Sampdoria	30	10	6	14	-6	36
11	Bologna	30	9	7	14	-7	34
12	Udinese	30	8	9	13	-8	33
13	Genoa	30	7	11	12	-12	32
14	Spezia	30	8	8	14	-15	32
15	Fiorentina	29	7	9	13	-10	30
16	Benevento	29	7	9	13	-24	30
17	Torino	29	5	12	12	-10	27
18	Cagliari	30	5	7	18	-20	22
19	Parma	30	3	11	16	-30	20
20	Crotone	30	4	3	23	-40	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	15	13	1	1	+24	40
2	Juventus	16	12	2	2	+22	38
3	Roma	16	11	3	2	+17	36
4	Napoli	14	10	1	3	+23	31
5	Atalanta	15	9	3	3	+19	30
6	Lazio	14	9	2	3	+6	29
7	Milan	15	6	5	4	+5	23
8	Bologna	14	6	3	5	+2	21
9	Verona	15	6	3	6	+1	21
10	Fiorentina	15	5	5	5	+1	20
11	Sampdoria	15	6	2	7	-1	20
12	Sassuolo	14	4	7	3	+1	19
13	Genoa	15	4	6	5	-1	18
14	Udinese	15	5	3	7	-2	18
15	Spezia	15	4	5	6	-5	17
16	Crotone	14	4	1	9	-9	13
17	Cagliari	15	3	3	9	-11	12
18	Benevento	15	2	6	7	-15	12
19	Torino	14	1	8	5	-5	11
20	Parma	16	2	5	9	-17	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	15	13	1	1	+17	40
2	Inter	15	10	4	1	+18	34
3	Atalanta	14	8	4	2	+13	28
4	Napoli	16	9	1	6	+8	28
5	Lazio	15	8	2	5	+2	26
6	Juventus	14	6	6	2	+12	24
7	Sassuolo	15	6	3	6	-1	21
8	Verona	15	5	5	5	+2	20
9	Roma	14	5	3	6	-7	18
10	Benevento	14	5	3	6	-9	18
11	Torino	15	4	4	7	-5	16
12	Sampdoria	15	4	4	7	-5	16
13	Udinese	15	3	6	6	-6	15
14	Spezia	15	4	3	8	-10	15
15	Genoa	15	3	5	7	-11	14
16	Bologna	16	3	4	9	-9	13
17	Cagliari	15	2	4	9	-9	10
18	Fiorentina	14	2	4	8	-11	10
19	Parma	14	1	6	7	-13	9
20	Crotone	16	0	2	14	-31	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.