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Eredivisie

Referee: D Makkelie

Twente

T S S S T

1–0

Full-time

Heracles

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Twente Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 45%

62%

27%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

65%

73%

Both score Ø 54%

50%

58%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

1,9

1,3

Conceded

1,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,22 xG 0,57

61% Possession 39%

11 Shots 5

3 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

22 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Twente 3. · Heracles 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	27	23	3	1	+66	+55.9	72
2	Feyenoord	26	19	5	2	+45	+50.4	62
3	Twente	26	16	5	5	+24	+16.5	53
4	AZ Alkmaar	27	15	7	5	+32	+17.5	52
5	Ajax	27	12	8	7	+12	+10.4	44
6	Nijmegen	26	11	8	7	+12	-11.0	41
7	Go Ahead Eagles	26	11	6	9	+6	-4.0	39
8	Utrecht	26	9	9	8	-2	-5.0	36
9	Sparta Rotterdam	27	9	7	11	-1	-6.7	34
10	For Sittard	27	9	7	11	-15	+1.0	34
11	Heerenveen	27	9	5	13	-7	-4.2	32
12	Almere City	26	7	9	10	-17	-12.5	30
13	Zwolle	27	7	7	13	-15	-11.5	28
14	Heracles	26	7	5	14	-25	-22.0	26
15	Waalwijk	27	6	5	16	-19	-11.9	23
16	Excelsior	27	4	10	13	-21	-13.5	22
17	Vitesse	27	4	5	18	-34	-21.9	17
18	Volendam	26	3	5	18	-41	-27.7	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	12	1	0	+29	+29.9	37
2	Twente	13	10	1	2	+13	+12.4	31
3	Feyenoord	13	9	3	1	+24	+27.0	30
4	AZ Alkmaar	14	9	2	3	+21	+15.5	29
5	Nijmegen	13	8	2	3	+14	+2.5	26
6	Ajax	13	7	4	2	+14	+9.0	25
7	Go Ahead Eagles	14	7	3	4	+13	+5.6	24
8	For Sittard	13	7	3	3	+8	+11.7	24
9	Heerenveen	13	6	2	5	+5	+6.0	20
10	Utrecht	13	5	5	3	+1	+0.5	20
11	Heracles	13	5	3	5	-8	-7.6	18
12	Sparta Rotterdam	14	4	5	5	-1	+2.1	17
13	Waalwijk	14	4	3	7	-5	-3.3	15
14	Almere City	13	3	5	5	-8	-4.3	14
15	Excelsior	13	2	7	4	-4	+0.2	13
16	Zwolle	14	3	3	8	-14	-0.0	12
17	Vitesse	13	1	5	7	-10	-5.3	8
18	Volendam	13	2	1	10	-25	-8.1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	14	11	2	1	+37	+26.1	35
2	Feyenoord	13	10	2	1	+21	+23.5	32
3	AZ Alkmaar	13	6	5	2	+11	+2.0	23
4	Twente	13	6	4	3	+11	+4.2	22
5	Ajax	14	5	4	5	-2	+1.4	19
6	Sparta Rotterdam	13	5	2	6	+0	-8.7	17
7	Zwolle	13	4	4	5	-1	-11.5	16
8	Utrecht	13	4	4	5	-3	-5.6	16
9	Almere City	13	4	4	5	-9	-8.2	16
10	Nijmegen	13	3	6	4	-2	-13.5	15
11	Go Ahead Eagles	12	4	3	5	-7	-9.6	15
12	Heerenveen	14	3	3	8	-12	-10.2	12
13	For Sittard	14	2	4	8	-23	-10.7	10
14	Excelsior	14	2	3	9	-17	-13.6	9
15	Vitesse	14	3	0	11	-24	-16.6	9
16	Waalwijk	13	2	2	9	-14	-8.6	8
17	Heracles	13	2	2	9	-17	-14.4	8
18	Volendam	13	1	4	8	-16	-19.6	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.