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Premier League

Referee: Paul Tierney

Southampton

S U S T T

1–4

Full-time

Chelsea

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,8

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

29%

43%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

57%

71%

Both score Ø 64%

57%

71%

Average goals

2,6

3,9

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,6

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

43% Possession 57%

10 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 16. · Chelsea 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	8	0	0	+14	24
2	Man City	7	5	1	1	+20	16
3	Leicester	8	4	2	2	+7	14
4	Crystal Palace	8	4	2	2	+0	14
5	Burnley	8	3	3	2	+2	12
6	Arsenal	7	3	3	1	+1	12
7	West Ham	8	3	3	2	+0	12
8	Tottenham	8	3	2	3	+2	11
9	Chelsea	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	Bournemouth	7	3	2	2	+1	11
11	Man United	7	2	3	2	+2	9
12	Sheffield United	8	2	3	3	+0	9
13	Brighton	8	2	3	3	-2	9
14	Aston Villa	8	2	2	4	+1	8
15	Wolves	7	1	4	2	-2	7
16	Southampton	7	2	1	4	-4	7
17	Everton	8	2	1	5	-7	7
18	Norwich	8	2	0	6	-11	6
19	Newcastle	7	1	2	4	-9	5
20	Watford	8	0	3	5	-16	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Leicester	4	3	1	0	+8	10
3	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+6	9
4	Burnley	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Crystal Palace	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	Man City	3	2	1	0	+12	7
7	Man United	4	2	1	1	+4	7
8	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+2	7
9	Norwich	4	2	0	2	-2	6
10	West Ham	4	2	0	2	-2	6
11	Everton	4	2	0	2	-2	6
12	Chelsea	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Brighton	4	1	2	1	+1	5
14	Aston Villa	4	1	2	1	+1	5
15	Bournemouth	4	1	2	1	+0	5
16	Wolves	4	1	2	1	-1	5
17	Sheffield United	4	1	0	3	-2	3
18	Newcastle	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Watford	4	0	2	2	-5	2
20	Southampton	3	0	1	2	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Man City	4	3	0	1	+8	9
3	West Ham	4	1	3	0	+2	6
4	Sheffield United	4	1	3	0	+2	6
5	Bournemouth	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Chelsea	3	2	0	1	+0	6
7	Southampton	4	2	0	2	-1	6
8	Crystal Palace	4	2	0	2	-3	6
9	Arsenal	4	1	2	1	-1	5
10	Leicester	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Brighton	4	1	1	2	-3	4
12	Aston Villa	4	1	0	3	+0	3
13	Burnley	4	0	3	1	-1	3
14	Newcastle	4	1	0	3	-8	3
15	Wolves	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Man United	3	0	2	1	-2	2
17	Tottenham	4	0	2	2	-4	2
18	Everton	4	0	1	3	-5	1
19	Watford	4	0	1	3	-11	1
20	Norwich	4	0	0	4	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.