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Serie A

Referee: M Mariani

Napoli

S U T S U

2–3

Full-time

Atalanta

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,8

Scored

2,2

2,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,8

This season — Serie A · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 67%

73%

60%

Points per game

2,4

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

60%

73%

Both score Ø 57%

40%

73%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

2,1

Conceded

0,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

55% Possession 45%

15 Shots 21

4 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 8

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 7

16 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 3. · Atalanta 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	16	12	2	2	+17	38
2	Inter	16	11	4	1	+24	37
3	Napoli	15	11	3	1	+23	36
4	Atalanta	15	9	4	2	+15	31
5	Roma	16	8	1	7	+5	25
6	Fiorentina	15	8	0	7	+4	24
7	Juventus	15	7	3	5	+4	24
8	Bologna	15	7	3	5	-3	24
9	Lazio	15	6	4	5	+0	22
10	Verona	15	5	5	5	+3	20
11	Empoli	15	6	2	7	-5	20
12	Sassuolo	15	5	4	6	+1	19
13	Torino	15	5	3	7	+3	18
14	Udinese	15	3	7	5	-4	16
15	Sampdoria	15	4	3	8	-8	15
16	Venezia	15	4	3	8	-13	15
17	Spezia	15	3	2	10	-19	11
18	Genoa	15	1	7	7	-12	10
19	Cagliari	15	1	6	8	-13	9
20	Salernitana	16	2	2	12	-22	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Milan	8	6	1	1	+9	19
3	Inter	7	5	2	0	+14	17
4	Lazio	8	5	2	1	+10	17
5	Verona	8	5	1	2	+7	16
6	Bologna	8	5	1	2	+5	16
7	Roma	8	5	1	2	+3	16
8	Fiorentina	7	5	0	2	+7	15
9	Torino	8	4	2	2	+7	14
10	Atalanta	8	3	3	2	+6	12
11	Juventus	7	3	1	3	+0	10
12	Udinese	8	2	4	2	-1	10
13	Sassuolo	8	2	3	3	+0	9
14	Sampdoria	8	2	2	4	-5	8
15	Spezia	7	2	1	4	-2	7
16	Venezia	6	2	1	3	-2	7
17	Empoli	8	2	1	5	-8	7
18	Cagliari	8	1	3	4	-3	6
19	Salernitana	8	1	1	6	-11	4
20	Genoa	7	0	3	4	-7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	9	6	2	1	+10	20
2	Atalanta	7	6	1	0	+9	19
3	Milan	8	6	1	1	+8	19
4	Napoli	8	5	2	1	+10	17
5	Juventus	8	4	2	2	+4	14
6	Empoli	7	4	1	2	+3	13
7	Sassuolo	7	3	1	3	+1	10
8	Roma	8	3	0	5	+2	9
9	Fiorentina	8	3	0	5	-3	9
10	Bologna	7	2	2	3	-8	8
11	Venezia	9	2	2	5	-11	8
12	Sampdoria	7	2	1	4	-3	7
13	Genoa	8	1	4	3	-5	7
14	Udinese	7	1	3	3	-3	6
15	Lazio	7	1	2	4	-10	5
16	Verona	7	0	4	3	-4	4
17	Torino	7	1	1	5	-4	4
18	Salernitana	8	1	1	6	-11	4
19	Spezia	8	1	1	6	-17	4
20	Cagliari	7	0	3	4	-10	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.