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Serie A

Referee: M Irrati

Atalanta

S S S S S

1–4

Full-time

Roma

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,8

2,3

Scored

2,8

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,0

This season — Serie A · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 59%

65%

53%

Points per game

2,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

76%

53%

Both score Ø 59%

76%

41%

Average goals

3,4

2,6

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

71% Possession 29%

17 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

10 Corners 0

3 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 3. · Roma 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	18	13	4	1	+33	43
2	Milan	17	12	3	2	+17	39
3	Atalanta	17	11	4	2	+17	37
4	Napoli	17	11	3	3	+21	36
5	Fiorentina	17	10	0	7	+9	30
6	Roma	17	9	1	7	+7	28
7	Juventus	17	8	4	5	+6	28
8	Lazio	18	8	4	6	+3	28
9	Empoli	17	8	2	7	-2	26
10	Bologna	17	7	3	7	-5	24
11	Verona	17	6	5	6	+3	23
12	Sassuolo	17	6	5	6	+2	23
13	Torino	17	6	4	7	+4	22
14	Sampdoria	17	5	3	9	-8	18
15	Udinese	17	3	8	6	-6	17
16	Venezia	17	4	4	9	-14	16
17	Spezia	17	3	3	11	-21	12
18	Cagliari	17	1	7	9	-17	10
19	Genoa	18	1	7	10	-18	10
20	Salernitana	18	2	2	14	-31	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	8	6	2	0	+18	20
2	Lazio	9	6	2	1	+12	20
3	Napoli	9	6	1	2	+11	19
4	Milan	8	6	1	1	+9	19
5	Roma	9	6	1	2	+5	19
6	Fiorentina	8	6	0	2	+11	18
7	Torino	9	5	2	2	+8	17
8	Verona	9	5	1	3	+6	16
9	Bologna	9	5	1	3	+4	16
10	Juventus	8	4	1	3	+2	13
11	Atalanta	8	3	3	2	+6	12
12	Sassuolo	9	3	3	3	+1	12
13	Udinese	9	2	5	2	-1	11
14	Empoli	9	3	1	5	-6	10
15	Spezia	8	2	2	4	-2	8
16	Venezia	8	2	2	4	-3	8
17	Sampdoria	9	2	2	5	-7	8
18	Cagliari	9	1	4	4	-3	7
19	Salernitana	9	1	1	7	-16	4
20	Genoa	8	0	3	5	-9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	9	8	1	0	+11	25
2	Inter	10	7	2	1	+15	23
3	Milan	9	6	2	1	+8	20
4	Napoli	8	5	2	1	+10	17
5	Empoli	8	5	1	2	+4	16
6	Juventus	9	4	3	2	+4	15
7	Fiorentina	9	4	0	5	-2	12
8	Sassuolo	8	3	2	3	+1	11
9	Sampdoria	8	3	1	4	-1	10
10	Roma	8	3	0	5	+2	9
11	Lazio	9	2	2	5	-9	8
12	Bologna	8	2	2	4	-9	8
13	Venezia	9	2	2	5	-11	8
14	Verona	8	1	4	3	-3	7
15	Genoa	10	1	4	5	-9	7
16	Udinese	8	1	3	4	-5	6
17	Torino	8	1	2	5	-4	5
18	Salernitana	9	1	1	7	-15	4
19	Spezia	9	1	1	7	-19	4
20	Cagliari	8	0	3	5	-14	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.