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Serie A

Referee: F La Penna

Fiorentina

T S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Salernitana

S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Salernitana

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,5

This season — Serie A · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 31%

31%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

38%

62%

Both score Ø 50%

46%

54%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

58% Possession 42%

18 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 3

4 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 11. · Salernitana 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	14	12	2	0	+24	38
2	Milan	14	9	3	2	+13	30
3	Lazio	13	8	3	2	+17	27
4	Atalanta	14	8	3	3	+8	27
5	Roma	14	8	2	4	+4	26
6	Juventus	13	7	4	2	+13	25
7	Udinese	14	6	6	2	+8	24
8	Inter	13	8	0	5	+6	24
9	Salernitana	13	4	5	4	-1	17
10	Torino	13	5	2	6	-3	17
11	Fiorentina	13	4	4	5	-2	16
12	Bologna	13	4	4	5	-3	16
13	Sassuolo	14	4	4	6	-4	16
14	Empoli	14	3	5	6	-9	14
15	Monza	13	4	1	8	-8	13
16	Lecce	14	2	6	6	-5	12
17	Spezia	14	2	4	8	-13	10
18	Cremonese	14	0	7	7	-13	7
19	Sampdoria	13	1	3	9	-17	6
20	Verona	13	1	2	10	-15	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	7	6	1	0	+14	19
2	Milan	7	6	0	1	+10	18
3	Juventus	7	5	2	0	+14	17
4	Inter	6	5	0	1	+10	15
5	Lazio	7	4	1	2	+6	13
6	Udinese	7	3	3	1	+6	12
7	Bologna	7	3	3	1	+3	12
8	Salernitana	7	3	2	2	+4	11
9	Sassuolo	7	3	2	2	+4	11
10	Atalanta	7	3	2	2	+1	11
11	Spezia	7	2	4	1	+1	10
12	Roma	6	3	0	3	+2	9
13	Monza	7	3	0	4	+0	9
14	Torino	6	2	2	2	+0	8
15	Fiorentina	6	2	2	2	-2	8
16	Empoli	7	2	2	3	-3	8
17	Lecce	7	1	4	2	-1	7
18	Verona	6	1	0	5	-7	3
19	Cremonese	7	0	3	4	-9	3
20	Sampdoria	7	0	2	5	-9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	7	6	1	0	+10	19
2	Roma	8	5	2	1	+2	17
3	Atalanta	7	5	1	1	+7	16
4	Lazio	6	4	2	0	+11	14
5	Milan	7	3	3	1	+3	12
6	Udinese	7	3	3	1	+2	12
7	Torino	7	3	0	4	-3	9
8	Inter	7	3	0	4	-4	9
9	Fiorentina	7	2	2	3	+0	8
10	Juventus	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Salernitana	6	1	3	2	-5	6
12	Empoli	7	1	3	3	-6	6
13	Lecce	7	1	2	4	-4	5
14	Sassuolo	7	1	2	4	-8	5
15	Cremonese	7	0	4	3	-4	4
16	Bologna	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Monza	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	Sampdoria	6	1	1	4	-8	4
19	Verona	7	0	2	5	-8	2
20	Spezia	7	0	0	7	-14	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.