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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Bournemouth

S T U T S

3–0

Full-time

Brighton

T U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 34/33 matches

Win Ø 34%

35%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

68%

64%

Both score Ø 66%

62%

70%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

1,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,11 xG 0,94

30% Possession 70%

15 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bournemouth 11. · Brighton 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	34	24	5	5	+56	+44.4	77
2	Man City	33	23	7	3	+48	+38.3	76
3	Liverpool	35	22	9	4	+41	+38.2	75
4	Aston Villa	35	20	7	8	+21	+6.5	67
5	Tottenham	32	18	6	8	+16	+2.2	60
6	Man United	34	16	6	12	+1	-9.4	54
7	Newcastle	34	16	5	13	+19	+8.7	53
8	West Ham	35	13	10	12	-9	-17.1	49
9	Chelsea	33	13	9	11	+4	+13.1	48
10	Wolves	35	13	7	15	-7	-12.7	46
11	Bournemouth	34	12	9	13	-11	-1.0	45
12	Brighton	33	11	11	11	-2	+0.8	44
13	Everton	35	12	8	15	-11	-1.2	44
14	Fulham	35	12	7	16	-4	-9.1	43
15	Crystal Palace	35	10	10	15	-12	-7.7	40
16	Brentford	35	9	8	18	-8	+5.7	35
17	Nott'm Forest	34	7	9	18	-18	-4.4	30
18	Luton	35	6	7	22	-29	-34.0	25
19	Burnley	35	5	9	21	-32	-25.9	24
20	Sheffield United	35	3	7	25	-63	-35.1	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	13	3	1	+28	+31.6	42
2	Man City	17	12	5	0	+29	+22.4	41
3	Arsenal	17	13	2	2	+28	+25.6	41
4	Newcastle	18	12	3	3	+27	+21.0	39
5	Aston Villa	18	12	3	3	+20	+11.7	39
6	Tottenham	16	12	0	4	+13	+7.7	36
7	Man United	17	9	3	5	+3	+2.4	30
8	Fulham	18	9	2	7	+11	+2.9	29
9	Chelsea	16	8	4	4	+10	+16.8	28
10	Brighton	16	7	6	3	+5	+4.5	27
11	Wolves	18	8	3	7	-2	-6.3	27
12	West Ham	18	6	8	4	+1	-6.5	26
13	Everton	18	7	4	7	+3	+8.0	25
14	Bournemouth	17	6	6	5	-3	+2.5	24
15	Crystal Palace	17	6	4	7	+2	+3.5	22
16	Brentford	17	5	6	6	-3	+4.8	21
17	Nott'm Forest	17	5	5	7	+0	+1.9	20
18	Luton	17	4	3	10	-7	-5.6	15
19	Burnley	17	2	4	11	-20	-4.1	10
20	Sheffield United	17	2	4	11	-33	-12.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	17	11	3	3	+28	+18.8	36
2	Man City	16	11	2	3	+19	+15.9	35
3	Liverpool	18	9	6	3	+13	+6.6	33
4	Aston Villa	17	8	4	5	+1	-5.2	28
5	Tottenham	16	6	6	4	+3	-5.5	24
6	Man United	17	7	3	7	-2	-11.9	24
7	West Ham	17	7	2	8	-10	-10.6	23
8	Bournemouth	17	6	3	8	-8	-3.6	21
9	Chelsea	17	5	5	7	-6	-3.7	20
10	Wolves	17	5	4	8	-5	-6.3	19
11	Everton	17	5	4	8	-14	-9.2	19
12	Crystal Palace	18	4	6	8	-14	-11.1	18
13	Brighton	17	4	5	8	-7	-3.7	17
14	Brentford	18	4	2	12	-5	+0.8	14
15	Newcastle	16	4	2	10	-8	-12.3	14
16	Burnley	18	3	5	10	-12	-21.8	14
17	Fulham	17	3	5	9	-15	-12.1	14
18	Nott'm Forest	17	2	4	11	-18	-6.3	10
19	Luton	18	2	4	12	-22	-28.4	10
20	Sheffield United	18	1	3	14	-30	-22.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.