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Bundesliga
Referee: H Lechner
Salzburg
S U T S T
2–2
Full-time
Sturm Graz
T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Salzburg Sturm Graz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,7
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
4,3
2,5
Scored
2,5
2,0
Conceded
1,8
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches
Win Ø 64%
64%
64%
Points per game
2,1
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
46%
43%
Both score Ø 45%
43%
46%
Average goals
3,0
2,4
Scored
2,1
1,8
Conceded
0,8
0,6
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

67% Possession 33%
26 Shots 8
5 Shots on target 2
8 Blocked shots 1
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
8 Corners 1
1 Offside 0
9 Free kicks against 7
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Salzburg 2. · Sturm Graz 1. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sturm Graz 28 18 7 3 +31 61
2 Salzburg 28 18 6 4 +37 60
3 LASK 29 13 9 7 +14 48
4 Austria Vienna 29 11 10 8 +6 43
5 Hartberg 29 11 8 10 -2 41
6 SK Rapid 29 9 12 8 +12 39
7 A. Klagenfurt 29 9 12 8 -5 39
8 Wolfsberger AC 29 9 10 10 -5 37
9 BW Linz 29 6 11 12 -14 29
10 Altach 29 5 12 12 -13 27
11 Tirol 29 7 5 17 -22 26
12 A. Lustenau 29 2 8 19 -39 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

31. Mar -24 Sturm Graz – Salzburg 0–1 9. Feb -24 Salzburg – Sturm Graz 1–1 16. Sep -23 Sturm Graz – Salzburg 2–2 21. May -23 Salzburg – Sturm Graz 2–1 23. Apr -23 Sturm Graz – Salzburg 0–2

Match report

Salzburg Sturm Graz
1′
⚽ A. Prass 0–1
W. Bøving
34′
⚽ A. Prass 0–2
J. Gazibegović
Half-time 0–2
S. Koïta 🔁
↦ P. Ratkov
46′
59′
🔁 S. Jatta
↦ M. Biereth
60′
🟨 Otar Kiteishvili
D. Guindo 🔁
↦ F. Daniliuc
66′
D. Nene 🔁
↦ M. Diambou
66′
69′
🔁 S. Hierländer
↦ O. Kiteishvili
70′
🔁 A. Camara
↦ W. Bøving
1–2 D. Nene ⚽
O. Gloukh
72′
80′
🔁 N. Geyrhofer
↦ A. Prass
80′
🔁 M. Johnston
↦ J. Gazibegović
Oumar Solet 🟨
82′
2–2 K. Konaté ⚽
82′
R. Šimić 🔁
↦ K. Konaté
87′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Salzburg

4-2-2-2
24 A. Schlager G
25 F. Daniliuc D
22 O. Solet D
6 S. Baidoo D
3 A. Terzić D
18 M. Bidstrup M
15 M. Diambou M
10 L. Sučić M
30 O. Gloukh M
21 P. Ratkov F
19 K. Konaté F
Bench (7)
20 S. Koïta
29 D. Guindo
45 D. Nene
23 R. Šimić
4 H. Blank
13 T. Horn
27 L. Gourna-Douath

Coach: O. Cinel

Sturm Graz

4-3-1-2
16 V. Jaroš G
22 J. Gazibegović D
42 D. Affengruber D
5 G. Wüthrich D
24 D. Lavalée D
19 T. Horvat M
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič M
8 A. Prass M
10 O. Kiteishvili M
15 W. Bøving F
18 M. Biereth F
Bench (7)
20 S. Jatta
25 S. Hierländer
36 A. Camara
35 N. Geyrhofer
2 M. Johnston
9 S. Włodarczyk
31 L. Marić

Coach: C. Ilzer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
–
🔒
U ✓
–
🔒
B
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

H Lechner · 116 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.