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Serie A

Referee: D Orsato

Spezia

T S U T T

1–3

Full-time

Verona

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Verona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 18%

16%

19%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

49%

41%

Both score Ø 52%

46%

57%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

2,21 xG 0,76

69% Possession 31%

20 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

9 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 18. · Verona 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	38	28	6	4	+49	+13.3	90
2	Lazio	38	22	8	8	+30	+6.7	74
3	Inter	38	23	3	12	+29	+18.4	72
4	Juventus	38	22	6	10	+23	+8.2	72
5	Milan	38	20	10	8	+21	+6.9	70
6	Atalanta	38	19	7	12	+18	+5.2	64
7	Roma	38	18	9	11	+12	+7.8	63
8	Fiorentina	38	15	11	12	+10	+8.8	56
9	Bologna	38	14	12	12	+4	-1.0	54
10	Torino	38	14	11	13	+1	+4.7	53
11	Monza	38	14	10	14	-4	-6.0	52
12	Udinese	38	11	13	14	-1	-5.6	46
13	Sassuolo	38	12	9	17	-14	+4.1	45
14	Empoli	38	10	13	15	-12	-7.6	43
15	Salernitana	38	9	15	14	-14	-15.0	42
16	Lecce	38	8	12	18	-13	+0.4	36
17	Verona	37	7	9	21	-28	-9.7	30
18	Spezia	37	6	12	19	-31	-6.8	30
19	Cremonese	38	5	12	21	-33	-13.8	27
20	Sampdoria	38	3	10	25	-47	-19.3	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	19	14	3	2	+25	+7.2	45
2	Milan	19	13	4	2	+21	+9.3	43
3	Juventus	19	13	3	3	+23	+6.4	42
4	Inter	19	14	0	5	+23	+10.5	42
5	Lazio	19	11	4	4	+14	+2.9	37
6	Roma	19	11	3	5	+13	+3.5	36
7	Atalanta	19	10	3	6	+12	+8.5	33
8	Fiorentina	19	9	6	4	+8	+10.3	33
9	Bologna	19	7	9	3	+10	-0.8	30
10	Sassuolo	19	8	4	7	+1	+1.0	28
11	Empoli	19	8	4	7	-1	-1.4	28
12	Udinese	19	6	9	4	+10	+1.8	27
13	Salernitana	19	7	6	6	+4	-7.2	27
14	Monza	19	7	5	7	+3	+1.0	26
15	Torino	19	5	7	7	-4	+2.6	22
16	Verona	19	6	3	10	-12	-5.4	21
17	Spezia	18	4	7	7	-12	-5.0	19
18	Lecce	19	3	8	8	-6	+2.6	17
19	Cremonese	19	4	4	11	-16	-5.4	16
20	Sampdoria	19	1	7	11	-16	-3.4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	19	14	3	2	+24	+6.0	45
2	Lazio	19	11	4	4	+16	+3.8	37
3	Atalanta	19	9	4	6	+6	-3.3	31
4	Torino	19	9	4	6	+5	+2.2	31
5	Inter	19	9	3	7	+6	+8.0	30
6	Juventus	19	9	3	7	+0	+1.9	30
7	Milan	19	7	6	6	+0	-2.3	27
8	Roma	19	7	6	6	-1	+4.3	27
9	Monza	19	7	5	7	-7	-7.0	26
10	Bologna	19	7	3	9	-6	-0.1	24
11	Fiorentina	19	6	5	8	+2	-1.5	23
12	Lecce	19	5	4	10	-7	-2.2	19
13	Udinese	19	5	4	10	-11	-7.4	19
14	Sassuolo	19	4	5	10	-15	+3.2	17
15	Empoli	19	2	9	8	-11	-6.2	15
16	Salernitana	19	2	9	8	-18	-7.8	15
17	Cremonese	19	1	8	10	-17	-8.4	11
18	Spezia	19	2	5	12	-19	-1.8	11
19	Verona	18	1	6	11	-16	-4.3	9
20	Sampdoria	19	2	3	14	-31	-15.8	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.