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Serie A

Referee: D Doveri

Spezia

T U T T T

2–0

Full-time

Milan

S U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 33/34 matches

Win Ø 33%

15%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

48%

53%

Both score Ø 55%

48%

62%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,6

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,80 xG 1,03

41% Possession 59%

14 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 9

1 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 18. · Milan 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	34	26	5	3	+47	+11.4	83
2	Juventus	34	20	6	8	+24	+6.8	66
3	Lazio	35	19	8	8	+26	+2.4	65
4	Inter	34	20	3	11	+27	+18.8	63
5	Milan	34	17	10	7	+16	+3.4	61
6	Atalanta	35	17	7	11	+14	+3.7	58
7	Roma	34	17	7	10	+12	+6.8	58
8	Fiorentina	34	12	10	12	+5	+5.5	46
9	Udinese	34	11	13	10	+4	-2.8	46
10	Bologna	34	12	10	12	-1	-1.8	46
11	Monza	34	12	10	12	-3	-3.2	46
12	Torino	34	12	10	12	-3	+2.8	46
13	Sassuolo	34	12	8	14	-9	+3.0	44
14	Salernitana	35	8	14	13	-13	-13.0	38
15	Empoli	34	9	11	14	-13	-7.6	38
16	Lecce	35	7	11	17	-13	+0.5	32
17	Verona	33	7	8	18	-23	-6.2	29
18	Spezia	33	5	11	17	-28	-6.8	26
19	Cremonese	34	4	12	18	-28	-10.1	24
20	Sampdoria	34	3	8	23	-41	-13.7	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	17	12	3	2	+22	+4.4	39
2	Napoli	17	12	3	2	+21	+4.8	39
3	Milan	17	11	4	2	+15	+4.5	37
4	Inter	17	12	0	5	+20	+9.5	36
5	Lazio	18	10	4	4	+13	+1.6	34
6	Roma	17	10	2	5	+12	+2.1	32
7	Bologna	17	7	7	3	+10	-0.5	28
8	Sassuolo	17	8	4	5	+4	+1.5	28
9	Udinese	17	6	9	2	+12	+3.8	27
10	Atalanta	17	8	3	6	+7	+5.2	27
11	Fiorentina	17	7	6	4	+5	+7.2	27
12	Empoli	17	7	4	6	-2	-0.9	25
13	Salernitana	18	6	6	6	+3	-6.1	24
14	Monza	17	6	5	6	+2	+1.0	23
15	Torino	17	5	6	6	-3	+2.1	21
16	Verona	17	6	2	9	-11	-3.9	20
17	Lecce	17	3	7	7	-5	+2.7	16
18	Spezia	16	3	7	6	-10	-5.7	16
19	Cremonese	17	3	4	10	-14	-4.6	13
20	Sampdoria	17	1	5	11	-16	-2.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	17	14	2	1	+26	+6.6	44
2	Lazio	17	9	4	4	+13	+0.8	31
3	Atalanta	18	9	4	5	+7	-1.5	31
4	Inter	17	8	3	6	+7	+9.3	27
5	Juventus	17	8	3	6	+2	+2.4	27
6	Roma	17	7	5	5	+0	+4.8	26
7	Torino	17	7	4	6	+0	+0.7	25
8	Milan	17	6	6	5	+1	-1.2	24
9	Monza	17	6	5	6	-5	-4.1	23
10	Fiorentina	17	5	4	8	+0	-1.7	19
11	Udinese	17	5	4	8	-8	-6.6	19
12	Bologna	17	5	3	9	-11	-1.2	18
13	Lecce	18	4	4	10	-8	-2.3	16
14	Sassuolo	17	4	4	9	-13	+1.5	16
15	Salernitana	17	2	8	7	-16	-6.9	14
16	Empoli	17	2	7	8	-11	-6.7	13
17	Cremonese	17	1	8	8	-14	-5.5	11
18	Spezia	17	2	4	11	-18	-1.1	10
19	Verona	16	1	6	9	-12	-2.3	9
20	Sampdoria	17	2	3	12	-25	-11.4	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.