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Serie A

Referee: M Guida

Spezia

T T T S U

0–4

Full-time

Torino

T S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Torino

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

1,8

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 35/36 matches

Win Ø 27%

17%

36%

Points per game

0,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

46%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

46%

53%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,86 xG 1,00

49% Possession 51%

8 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 2

4 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 17. · Torino 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	36	27	5	4	+47	+12.4	86
2	Juventus	36	21	6	9	+23	+7.3	69
3	Lazio	36	20	8	8	+27	+3.9	68
4	Inter	36	21	3	12	+27	+16.8	66
5	Milan	36	18	10	8	+18	+5.8	64
6	Atalanta	36	18	7	11	+16	+4.2	61
7	Roma	36	17	9	10	+12	+7.9	60
8	Monza	36	14	10	12	+0	-3.0	52
9	Fiorentina	36	13	11	12	+7	+7.1	50
10	Bologna	36	13	11	12	+3	-1.1	50
11	Torino	36	13	11	12	-2	+4.4	50
12	Udinese	36	11	13	12	+1	-6.2	46
13	Sassuolo	37	12	9	16	-12	+4.6	45
14	Empoli	36	10	12	14	-10	-6.3	42
15	Salernitana	36	8	15	13	-13	-13.3	39
16	Lecce	36	7	12	17	-13	-0.0	33
17	Spezia	35	6	12	17	-26	-5.5	30
18	Verona	35	7	8	20	-26	-8.0	29
19	Cremonese	36	4	12	20	-34	-13.1	24
20	Sampdoria	37	3	10	24	-45	-18.0	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	18	13	3	2	+24	+6.0	42
2	Napoli	18	13	3	2	+23	+5.9	42
3	Milan	18	12	4	2	+19	+7.7	40
4	Inter	18	13	0	5	+22	+8.6	39
5	Lazio	18	10	4	4	+13	+1.6	34
6	Roma	18	10	3	5	+12	+2.4	33
7	Atalanta	18	9	3	6	+9	+5.7	30
8	Fiorentina	18	8	6	4	+7	+9.1	30
9	Bologna	18	7	8	3	+10	-1.3	29
10	Sassuolo	18	8	4	6	+3	+1.5	28
11	Empoli	18	8	4	6	+1	+0.1	28
12	Udinese	18	6	9	3	+11	+2.3	27
13	Monza	18	7	5	6	+4	+1.1	26
14	Salernitana	18	6	6	6	+3	-6.1	24
15	Torino	18	5	7	6	-3	+2.4	22
16	Verona	18	6	2	10	-12	-5.2	20
17	Spezia	17	4	7	6	-8	-4.9	19
18	Lecce	18	3	8	7	-5	+2.2	17
19	Cremonese	18	3	4	11	-18	-6.1	13
20	Sampdoria	19	1	7	11	-16	-3.4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	18	14	2	2	+24	+6.5	44
2	Lazio	18	10	4	4	+14	+2.3	34
3	Atalanta	18	9	4	5	+7	-1.5	31
4	Torino	18	8	4	6	+1	+2.0	28
5	Inter	18	8	3	7	+5	+8.1	27
6	Roma	18	7	6	5	+0	+5.5	27
7	Juventus	18	8	3	7	-1	+1.4	27
8	Monza	18	7	5	6	-4	-4.1	26
9	Milan	18	6	6	6	-1	-1.9	24
10	Bologna	18	6	3	9	-7	+0.2	21
11	Fiorentina	18	5	5	8	+0	-2.0	20
12	Udinese	18	5	4	9	-10	-8.5	19
13	Sassuolo	19	4	5	10	-15	+3.2	17
14	Lecce	18	4	4	10	-8	-2.3	16
15	Salernitana	18	2	9	7	-16	-7.1	15
16	Empoli	18	2	8	8	-11	-6.4	14
17	Cremonese	18	1	8	9	-16	-7.1	11
18	Spezia	18	2	5	11	-18	-0.6	11
19	Verona	17	1	6	10	-14	-2.8	9
20	Sampdoria	18	2	3	13	-29	-14.5	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.