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Serie A

Referee: M Guida

Fiorentina

S S S U S

1–1

Full-time

Atalanta

U T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 43%

38%

48%

Points per game

1,4

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

38%

45%

Both score Ø 52%

52%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,6

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,97 xG 0,49

63% Possession 37%

18 Shots 6

7 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 1

0 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 20

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 9. · Atalanta 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	30	24	3	3	+45	+8.2	75
2	Lazio	30	18	7	5	+29	+3.0	61
3	Juventus	30	18	5	7	+22	+6.8	59
4	Roma	30	17	5	8	+16	+6.1	56
5	Milan	30	15	8	7	+12	+3.8	53
6	Inter	30	16	3	11	+14	+14.5	51
7	Atalanta	29	14	6	9	+13	+4.4	48
8	Bologna	30	12	8	10	+2	-2.2	44
9	Fiorentina	29	11	8	10	+2	+3.1	41
10	Sassuolo	30	11	7	12	-5	+3.4	40
11	Udinese	30	9	12	9	+0	-2.1	39
12	Torino	30	10	9	11	-5	+1.3	39
13	Monza	30	10	8	12	-6	-2.3	38
14	Empoli	30	7	11	12	-12	-6.6	32
15	Salernitana	30	6	12	12	-16	-9.3	30
16	Lecce	30	6	10	14	-10	-0.8	28
17	Spezia	29	5	10	14	-23	-9.1	25
18	Verona	29	5	7	17	-19	-4.4	22
19	Cremonese	30	3	10	17	-27	-8.3	19
20	Sampdoria	30	3	7	20	-32	-9.5	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	15	11	3	1	+22	+5.2	36
2	Napoli	15	11	2	2	+20	+2.6	35
3	Inter	16	11	0	5	+18	+7.2	33
4	Roma	15	10	1	4	+14	+1.8	31
5	Lazio	15	9	3	3	+12	+0.3	30
6	Milan	14	9	3	2	+11	+4.9	30
7	Bologna	16	7	6	3	+10	+0.2	27
8	Sassuolo	15	7	3	5	+3	+0.2	24
9	Fiorentina	15	6	5	4	+0	+4.4	23
10	Atalanta	14	6	3	5	+6	+5.4	21
11	Udinese	14	4	8	2	+7	+3.2	20
12	Torino	15	5	5	5	-2	+2.4	20
13	Monza	15	5	4	6	+1	+1.0	19
14	Empoli	14	5	4	5	-2	-1.3	19
15	Salernitana	15	4	5	6	-1	-5.4	17
16	Verona	15	5	2	8	-6	-1.8	17
17	Spezia	15	3	7	5	-8	-6.4	16
18	Lecce	15	2	7	6	-5	+1.4	13
19	Cremonese	15	2	3	10	-16	-3.8	9
20	Sampdoria	15	1	4	10	-14	+0.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	15	13	1	1	+25	+5.6	40
2	Lazio	15	9	4	2	+17	+2.7	31
3	Atalanta	15	8	3	4	+7	-0.9	27
4	Roma	15	7	4	4	+2	+4.3	25
5	Milan	16	6	5	5	+1	-1.1	23
6	Juventus	15	7	2	6	+0	+1.7	23
7	Torino	15	5	4	6	-3	-1.0	19
8	Monza	15	5	4	6	-7	-3.4	19
9	Udinese	16	5	4	7	-7	-5.3	19
10	Fiorentina	14	5	3	6	+2	-1.3	18
11	Inter	14	5	3	6	-4	+7.2	18
12	Bologna	14	5	2	7	-8	-2.4	17
13	Sassuolo	15	4	4	7	-8	+3.2	16
14	Lecce	15	4	3	8	-5	-2.2	15
15	Empoli	16	2	7	7	-10	-5.3	13
16	Salernitana	15	2	7	6	-15	-3.9	13
17	Cremonese	15	1	7	7	-11	-4.5	10
18	Spezia	14	2	3	9	-15	-2.7	9
19	Sampdoria	15	2	3	10	-18	-9.9	9
20	Verona	14	0	5	9	-13	-2.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.