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Serie A

Referee: D Doveri

Fiorentina

T S U T S

1–0

Full-time

Atalanta

S U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

This season — Serie A · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

75%

67%

Both score Ø 65%

58%

71%

Average goals

3,2

3,1

Scored

1,8

1,9

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

50% Possession 50%

6 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 1

0 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 1

3 Offside 5

17 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 8. · Atalanta 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	26	17	5	4	+24	56
2	Inter	24	16	6	2	+35	54
3	Napoli	25	16	5	4	+29	53
4	Juventus	26	13	8	5	+15	47
5	Atalanta	24	12	8	4	+17	44
6	Lazio	25	12	6	7	+13	42
7	Roma	26	12	5	9	+10	41
8	Fiorentina	24	12	3	9	+9	39
9	Verona	26	10	7	9	+7	37
10	Torino	25	9	6	10	+6	33
11	Empoli	26	8	7	11	-12	31
12	Sassuolo	25	7	9	9	-3	30
13	Bologna	24	8	4	12	-11	28
14	Sampdoria	26	7	5	14	-7	26
15	Spezia	25	7	5	13	-19	26
16	Udinese	23	5	9	9	-10	24
17	Cagliari	25	4	9	12	-21	21
18	Venezia	24	5	6	13	-21	21
19	Genoa	25	1	12	12	-25	15
20	Salernitana	24	3	5	16	-36	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	12	9	2	1	+20	29
2	Napoli	13	8	2	3	+14	26
3	Milan	13	8	2	3	+10	26
4	Lazio	12	7	4	1	+15	25
5	Roma	14	7	4	3	+5	25
6	Torino	13	7	3	3	+12	24
7	Juventus	13	7	3	3	+8	24
8	Verona	13	7	2	4	+10	23
9	Fiorentina	11	7	1	3	+14	22
10	Bologna	12	5	2	5	+0	17
11	Sampdoria	14	4	3	7	-3	15
12	Atalanta	12	3	5	4	+2	14
13	Udinese	11	3	5	3	-3	14
14	Sassuolo	13	3	5	5	-4	14
15	Spezia	12	3	3	6	-3	12
16	Cagliari	12	2	5	5	-6	11
17	Empoli	13	3	2	8	-14	11
18	Venezia	12	2	3	7	-10	9
19	Genoa	12	0	6	6	-10	6
20	Salernitana	12	1	3	8	-19	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	12	9	3	0	+15	30
2	Milan	13	9	3	1	+14	30
3	Napoli	12	8	3	1	+15	27
4	Inter	12	7	4	1	+15	25
5	Juventus	13	6	5	2	+7	23
6	Empoli	13	5	5	3	+2	20
7	Lazio	13	5	2	6	-2	17
8	Fiorentina	13	5	2	6	-5	17
9	Roma	12	5	1	6	+5	16
10	Sassuolo	12	4	4	4	+1	16
11	Verona	13	3	5	5	-3	14
12	Spezia	13	4	2	7	-16	14
13	Venezia	12	3	3	6	-11	12
14	Sampdoria	12	3	2	7	-4	11
15	Bologna	12	3	2	7	-11	11
16	Udinese	12	2	4	6	-7	10
17	Cagliari	13	2	4	7	-15	10
18	Torino	12	2	3	7	-6	9
19	Genoa	13	1	6	6	-15	9
20	Salernitana	12	2	2	8	-17	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.