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Conference League
Referee: I Peljto
Lech Poznan
U S S U S
1–4
Full-time
Fiorentina
S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lech Poznan Fiorentina
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,3
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,7
2,2
Scored
2,0
1,8
Conceded
0,7
0,3
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 16/12 matches
Win Ø 63%
50%
75%
Points per game
1,9
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
38%
75%
Both score Ø 47%
44%
50%
Average goals
2,6
3,2
Scored
1,9
2,3
Conceded
0,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,54 xG 2,21
50% Possession 50%
6 Shots 21
2 Shots on target 6
4 Blocked shots 9
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 5
1 Offside 1
6 Free kicks against 14
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Lech Poznan Fiorentina
4′
⚽ Arthur Cabral 0–1
1–1 K. Velde ⚽
M. Ishak
20′
41′
⚽ N. González 1–2
C. Biraghi
Half-time 1–2
51′
🔁 J. Ikoné
↦ N. González
58′
⚽ G. Bonaventura 1–3
63′
⚽ J. Ikoné 1–4
N. Milenković
A. Ba Loua 🔁
↦ M. Skóraś
75′
Afonso Sousa 🔁
↦ N. Kvekveskiri
75′
A. Sobiech 🔁
↦ M. Ishak
76′
78′
🔁 G. Castrovilli
↦ G. Bonaventura
78′
🔁 L. Jović
↦ Arthur Cabral
83′
🟨 Luca Ranieri
85′
🔁 R. Sottil
↦ J. Brekalo
85′
🔁 A. Barák
↦ R. Mandragora
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Lech Poznan

4-2-3-1
35 F. Bednarek G
2 Joel Pereira D
37 Ľ. Šatka D
16 A. Milić D
5 Pedro Rebocho D
6 J. Karlström M
30 N. Kvekveskiri M
21 M. Skóraś M
11 F. Marchwiński M
23 K. Velde M
9 M. Ishak F
Bench (9)
50 A. Ba Loua
7 Afonso Sousa
90 A. Sobiech
3 B. Douglas
24 João Amaral
15 M. Gurgul
77 D. Holec
14 G. Tsitaishvili
44 A. Czerwiński

Coach: J. van den Brom

Fiorentina

4-3-3
1 P. Terracciano G
2 Dodô D
4 N. Milenković D
16 L. Ranieri D
3 C. Biraghi D
5 G. Bonaventura M
34 S. Amrabat M
38 R. Mandragora M
22 N. González F
9 Arthur Cabral F
77 J. Brekalo F
Bench (12)
11 J. Ikoné
10 G. Castrovilli
7 L. Jović
33 R. Sottil
72 A. Barák
99 C. Kouamé
98 Igor
31 M. Cerofolini
32 A. Duncan
15 A. Terzić
8 R. Saponara
23 L. Venuti

Coach: V. Italiano

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Peljto · 38 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.