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Serie A

Referee: M Irrati

Atalanta

S S S U S

1–0

Full-time

Fiorentina

U U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,5

This season — Serie A · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 50%

71%

29%

Points per game

2,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 22%

14%

29%

Both score Ø 43%

43%

Average goals

2,0

1,9

Scored

1,6

1,0

Conceded

0,4

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

38% Possession 62%

10 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 3. · Fiorentina 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	8	6	2	0	+12	20
2	Lazio	8	5	2	1	+12	17
3	Atalanta	7	5	2	0	+8	17
4	Milan	8	5	2	1	+7	17
5	Udinese	7	5	1	1	+8	16
6	Roma	8	5	1	2	+2	16
7	Sassuolo	8	3	3	2	+2	12
8	Inter	8	4	0	4	+1	12
9	Juventus	7	2	4	1	+4	10
10	Torino	8	3	1	4	-3	10
11	Fiorentina	7	2	3	2	+1	9
12	Spezia	8	2	2	4	-8	8
13	Lecce	8	1	4	3	-2	7
14	Salernitana	8	1	4	3	-3	7
15	Empoli	8	1	4	3	-3	7
16	Monza	8	2	1	5	-7	7
17	Bologna	7	1	3	3	-3	6
18	Verona	7	1	2	4	-7	5
19	Cremonese	8	0	3	5	-9	3
20	Sampdoria	8	0	2	6	-12	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lazio	5	4	0	1	+8	12
2	Napoli	4	3	1	0	+7	10
3	Udinese	4	3	1	0	+7	10
4	Inter	4	3	0	1	+5	9
5	Milan	4	3	0	1	+4	9
6	Juventus	4	2	2	0	+5	8
7	Fiorentina	4	2	2	0	+3	8
8	Spezia	4	2	2	0	+2	8
9	Sassuolo	4	2	1	1	+4	7
10	Roma	3	2	0	1	+3	6
11	Atalanta	3	1	2	0	+2	5
12	Bologna	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Salernitana	4	1	1	2	+2	4
14	Torino	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Lecce	4	0	3	1	-1	3
16	Verona	3	1	0	2	-3	3
17	Monza	4	1	0	3	-3	3
18	Empoli	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Sampdoria	5	0	2	3	-6	2
20	Cremonese	3	0	1	2	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Napoli	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Roma	5	3	1	1	-1	10
4	Milan	4	2	2	0	+3	8
5	Udinese	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Torino	5	2	0	3	-3	6
7	Lazio	3	1	2	0	+4	5
8	Empoli	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Sassuolo	4	1	2	1	-2	5
10	Lecce	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Monza	4	1	1	2	-4	4
12	Inter	4	1	0	3	-4	3
13	Salernitana	4	0	3	1	-5	3
14	Juventus	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Cremonese	5	0	2	3	-4	2
16	Verona	4	0	2	2	-4	2
17	Fiorentina	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Bologna	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Sampdoria	3	0	0	3	-6	0
20	Spezia	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.