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Premier League

Referee: Simon Hooper

Watford

T U T S U

3–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,2

This season — Premier League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 19%

11%

26%

Points per game

0,7

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

37%

68%

Both score Ø 50%

37%

63%

Average goals

2,4

3,1

Scored

0,6

1,3

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%

20 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 2

9 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 19. · Aston Villa 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	17	1	0	+32	52
2	Leicester	19	12	3	4	+23	39
3	Man City	19	12	2	5	+29	38
4	Chelsea	19	10	2	7	+6	32
5	Wolves	19	7	9	3	+5	30
6	Tottenham	19	8	5	6	+7	29
7	Sheffield United	19	7	8	4	+6	29
8	Man United	19	7	7	5	+7	28
9	Crystal Palace	19	7	5	7	-4	26
10	Newcastle	19	7	4	8	-9	25
11	Arsenal	19	5	9	5	-3	24
12	Burnley	19	7	3	9	-7	24
13	Brighton	20	6	5	9	-4	23
14	Everton	19	6	4	9	-8	22
15	Southampton	19	6	3	10	-14	21
16	Bournemouth	20	5	5	10	-8	20
17	West Ham	18	5	4	9	-10	19
18	Aston Villa	19	5	3	11	-8	18
19	Watford	19	2	7	10	-21	13
20	Norwich	19	3	3	13	-19	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	9	0	0	+17	27
2	Leicester	10	7	2	1	+10	23
3	Tottenham	10	6	2	2	+11	20
4	Man City	9	6	1	2	+16	19
5	Man United	10	5	4	1	+10	19
6	Everton	10	5	2	3	+1	17
7	Newcastle	9	4	4	1	+3	16
8	Wolves	10	4	4	2	+2	16
9	Brighton	10	4	3	3	+3	15
10	Burnley	9	5	0	4	+0	15
11	Crystal Palace	10	4	3	3	+0	15
12	Sheffield United	10	4	2	4	+2	14
13	Chelsea	10	4	2	4	+1	14
14	Aston Villa	10	4	2	4	-1	14
15	Arsenal	9	3	4	2	-1	13
16	Bournemouth	10	2	4	4	-4	10
17	West Ham	8	2	1	5	-6	7
18	Watford	9	1	4	4	-7	7
19	Norwich	9	2	1	6	-8	7
20	Southampton	9	2	1	6	-15	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	8	1	0	+15	25
2	Man City	10	6	1	3	+13	19
3	Chelsea	9	6	0	3	+5	18
4	Leicester	9	5	1	3	+13	16
5	Sheffield United	9	3	6	0	+4	15
6	Wolves	9	3	5	1	+3	14
7	Southampton	10	4	2	4	+1	14
8	West Ham	10	3	3	4	-4	12
9	Arsenal	10	2	5	3	-2	11
10	Crystal Palace	9	3	2	4	-4	11
11	Bournemouth	10	3	1	6	-4	10
12	Man United	9	2	3	4	-3	9
13	Tottenham	9	2	3	4	-4	9
14	Burnley	10	2	3	5	-7	9
15	Newcastle	10	3	0	7	-12	9
16	Brighton	10	2	2	6	-7	8
17	Watford	10	1	3	6	-14	6
18	Everton	9	1	2	6	-9	5
19	Norwich	10	1	2	7	-11	5
20	Aston Villa	9	1	1	7	-7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.