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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Watford

T T U S T

3–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

0,7

0,5

Conceded

1,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-1,8

This season — Premier League · 34/35 matches

Win Ø 21%

32%

Points per game

1,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

44%

46%

Both score Ø 44%

41%

46%

Average goals

2,1

2,7

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

64% Possession 36%

18 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 4

1 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Watford 12. · Aston Villa 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	35	22	10	3	+30	76
2	Tottenham	35	19	12	4	+39	69
3	Man City	35	19	7	9	+32	64
4	Arsenal	35	18	10	7	+24	64
5	Man United	34	17	8	9	+12	59
6	West Ham	34	14	14	6	+14	56
7	Liverpool	34	15	10	9	+13	55
8	Southampton	35	15	9	11	+12	54
9	Chelsea	34	12	11	11	+7	47
10	Stoke	35	13	8	14	-14	47
11	Everton	34	9	14	11	+5	41
12	Watford	34	11	8	15	-7	41
13	West Brom	35	10	11	14	-11	41
14	Bournemouth	35	11	8	16	-19	41
15	Swansea	35	10	10	15	-15	40
16	Crystal Palace	35	10	9	16	-9	39
17	Sunderland	34	7	10	17	-18	31
18	Norwich	34	8	7	19	-25	31
19	Newcastle	35	7	9	19	-26	30
20	Aston Villa	35	3	7	25	-44	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	18	11	6	1	+15	39
2	Man City	18	12	1	5	+26	37
3	Man United	17	11	4	2	+16	37
4	Tottenham	18	10	6	2	+21	36
5	Arsenal	17	10	4	3	+15	34
6	West Ham	17	8	7	2	+10	31
7	Southampton	17	9	3	5	+12	30
8	Liverpool	17	7	7	3	+9	28
9	Swansea	17	7	5	5	-2	26
10	Stoke	17	7	3	7	-3	24
11	Newcastle	17	5	7	5	+3	22
12	Chelsea	17	5	7	5	+2	22
13	West Brom	17	6	4	7	-3	22
14	Watford	17	5	5	7	+0	20
15	Norwich	17	5	5	7	-5	20
16	Bournemouth	18	5	4	9	-11	19
17	Sunderland	17	4	6	7	-1	18
18	Crystal Palace	18	5	3	10	-5	18
19	Everton	17	4	5	8	+1	17
20	Aston Villa	18	2	4	12	-21	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	17	11	4	2	+15	37
2	Tottenham	17	9	6	2	+18	33
3	Arsenal	18	8	6	4	+9	30
4	Man City	17	7	6	4	+6	27
5	Liverpool	17	8	3	6	+4	27
6	Chelsea	17	7	4	6	+5	25
7	West Ham	17	6	7	4	+4	25
8	Everton	17	5	9	3	+4	24
9	Southampton	18	6	6	6	+0	24
10	Stoke	18	6	5	7	-11	23
11	Man United	17	6	4	7	-4	22
12	Bournemouth	17	6	4	7	-8	22
13	Crystal Palace	17	5	6	6	-4	21
14	Watford	17	6	3	8	-7	21
15	West Brom	18	4	7	7	-8	19
16	Swansea	18	3	5	10	-13	14
17	Sunderland	17	3	4	10	-17	13
18	Norwich	17	3	2	12	-20	11
19	Newcastle	18	2	2	14	-29	8
20	Aston Villa	17	1	3	13	-23	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.