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Premier League

Referee: Lee Mason

Aston Villa

T T T U T

2–3

Full-time

Watford

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

0,3

1,2

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 20%

31%

Points per game

0,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

54%

38%

Both score Ø 42%

46%

38%

Average goals

2,6

2,0

Scored

0,8

0,9

Conceded

1,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

65% Possession 35%

12 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 10

3 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 20. · Watford 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	13	8	4	1	+8	28
2	Man United	13	8	3	2	+10	27
3	Man City	13	8	2	3	+14	26
4	Arsenal	13	8	2	3	+12	26
5	Tottenham	13	6	6	1	+13	24
6	West Ham	13	6	3	4	+4	21
7	Everton	13	5	5	3	+8	20
8	Southampton	13	5	5	3	+5	20
9	Liverpool	13	5	5	3	+2	20
10	Crystal Palace	13	6	1	6	+1	19
11	Stoke	13	5	4	4	-1	19
12	West Brom	13	5	2	6	-5	17
13	Watford	13	4	4	5	-2	16
14	Swansea	13	3	5	5	-4	14
15	Chelsea	13	4	2	7	-6	14
16	Norwich	13	3	3	7	-8	12
17	Newcastle	13	2	4	7	-12	10
18	Sunderland	13	2	3	8	-12	9
19	Bournemouth	13	2	3	8	-13	9
20	Aston Villa	13	1	2	10	-14	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	5	0	2	+11	15
2	Tottenham	7	4	3	0	+9	15
3	Man United	6	4	2	0	+8	14
4	Leicester	6	4	1	1	+2	13
5	Everton	7	3	2	2	+5	11
6	Arsenal	6	3	2	1	+4	11
7	Southampton	7	3	1	3	+2	10
8	Chelsea	7	3	1	3	+0	10
9	Swansea	7	2	3	2	-1	9
10	West Ham	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Liverpool	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Watford	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Norwich	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	Crystal Palace	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Stoke	6	2	1	3	-2	7
16	West Brom	7	2	1	4	-4	7
17	Newcastle	7	1	3	3	-1	6
18	Sunderland	6	1	2	3	-1	5
19	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-4	5
20	Aston Villa	6	0	2	4	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	7	5	0	2	+8	15
2	Leicester	7	4	3	0	+6	15
3	West Ham	7	4	1	2	+3	13
4	Man United	7	4	1	2	+2	13
5	Liverpool	7	3	3	1	+4	12
6	Crystal Palace	6	4	0	2	+3	12
7	Stoke	7	3	3	1	+1	12
8	Man City	6	3	2	1	+3	11
9	Southampton	6	2	4	0	+3	10
10	West Brom	6	3	1	2	-1	10
11	Tottenham	6	2	3	1	+4	9
12	Everton	6	2	3	1	+3	9
13	Watford	6	2	2	2	+0	8
14	Swansea	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-7	5
16	Chelsea	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Bournemouth	7	1	1	5	-9	4
18	Sunderland	7	1	1	5	-11	4
19	Newcastle	6	1	1	4	-11	4
20	Aston Villa	7	1	0	6	-10	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.