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Serie A
Referee: Michael Fabbri
Udinese
T U U S T
1–0
Full-time
Atalanta
U U U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Udinese Atalanta
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 84%
100%
67%
Average goals
3,3
1,5
Scored
1,5
0,8
Conceded
1,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Serie A · 9/9 matches
Win Ø 28%
33%
22%
Points per game
1,3
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 39%
56%
22%
Both score Ø 78%
78%
78%
Average goals
2,9
2,2
Scored
1,2
1,4
Conceded
1,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,4
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,53 xG 0,37
40% Possession 60%
11 Shots 5
5 Shots on target 0
2 Blocked shots 4
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 4
0 Offside 3
14 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Udinese 12. · Atalanta 9.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Napoli 9 7 0 2 +8 +4.1 21
2 Roma 9 7 0 2 +6 +2.8 21
3 Inter 9 6 0 3 +11 +10.1 18
4 Milan 9 5 3 1 +7 +3.6 18
5 Como 9 4 4 1 +6 +2.1 16
6 Bologna 9 4 3 2 +6 +0.4 15
7 Juventus 9 4 3 2 +3 +3.9 15
8 Cremonese 9 3 5 1 +1 -4.9 14
9 Atalanta 9 2 7 0 +6 +5.7 13
10 Sassuolo 9 4 1 4 +0 -3.8 13
11 Lazio 9 3 3 3 +4 -2.4 12
12 Udinese 9 3 3 3 -4 -1.9 12
13 Torino 9 3 3 3 -6 -3.0 12
14 Cagliari 9 2 3 4 -3 -7.1 9
15 Parma 9 1 4 4 -5 -1.5 7
16 Lecce 9 1 3 5 -7 -4.3 6
17 Pisa 9 0 5 4 -7 -4.7 5
18 Verona 9 0 5 4 -9 +0.9 5
19 Fiorentina 9 0 4 5 -8 -1.6 4
20 Genoa 9 0 3 6 -9 +1.4 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Udinese Atalanta
1–0 N. Zaniolo
H. Kamara
40′
Half-time 1–0
59′
🔁 A. Lookman
↦ K. Sulemana
59′
🔁 N. Krstovic
↦ G. Scamacca
Hassane Kamara 🟨
64′
66′
🟨 Nikola Krstović
V. Bayo 🔁
↦ N. Zaniolo
69′
J. Piotrowski 🔁
↦ J. Ekkelenkamp
69′
M. Palma 🔁
↦ N. Bertola
75′
K. Ehizibue 🔁
↦ A. Zanoli
76′
77′
🔁 R. Bellanova
↦ N. Zalewski
77′
🔁 C. De Ketelaere
↦ L. Samardzic
84′
🔁 M. Brescianini
↦ O. Kossounou
O. Zarraga 🔁
↦ A. Buksa
86′
91′
🟨 Charles De Ketelaere
94′
🟨 Éderson
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Udinese

3-5-2
40 M. Okoye G
13 N. Bertola D
27 C. Kabasele D
28 O. Solet D
59 A. Zanoli M
32 J. Ekkelenkamp M
8 J. Karlstrom M
14 A. Atta M
11 H. Kamara M
10 N. Zaniolo F
18 A. Buksa F
Bench (15)
1 A. Nunziante
90 R. Sava
93 D. Padelli
2 S. Goglichidze
4 S. Lovric
6 O. Zarraga
7 I. Gueye
15 V. Bayo
16 M. Palma
17 I. Bravo
19 K. Ehizibue
24 J. Piotrowski
33 J. Zemura
38 L. Miller
77 R. Modesto

Coach: Kosta Runjaić

Atalanta

3-4-2-1
29 M. Carnesecchi G
3 O. Kossounou D
4 I. Hien D
19 B. Djimsiti D
77 D. Zappacosta M
13 Ederson M
8 M. Pasalic M
59 N. Zalewski M
10 L. Samardzic F
7 K. Sulemana F
9 G. Scamacca F
Bench (11)
31 F. Rossi
57 M. Sportiello
6 Y. Musah
11 A. Lookman
16 R. Bellanova
17 C. De Ketelaere
40 R. Obric
44 M. Brescianini
47 L. Bernasconi
69 H. Ahanor
90 N. Krstovic

Coach: Ivan Jurić

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
4,30
U
3,69
B
1,80
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,82
U2,5 ✓
1,93
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Michael Fabbri · 75 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.