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Championship

Referee: John Busby

Watford

U S T S T

3–0

Full-time

Middlesbrough

U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

1,7

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 12/11 matches

Win Ø 49%

33%

64%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

58%

45%

Both score Ø 56%

67%

45%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,3

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,76 xG 0,79

45% Possession 55%

9 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 15. · Middlesbrough 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	13	8	4	1	+24	+15.3	28
2	Middlesbrough	11	7	3	1	+8	+3.2	24
3	Millwall	12	7	2	3	+1	+1.4	23
4	Bristol City	12	6	4	2	+9	+3.1	22
5	Hull	13	6	4	3	+2	-9.2	22
6	Stoke	12	6	3	3	+5	-1.7	21
7	Charlton	12	5	4	3	+4	-0.5	19
8	Preston	12	5	4	3	+3	-1.1	19
9	QPR	12	5	3	4	-2	-0.7	18
10	West Brom	13	5	3	5	-2	-0.7	18
11	Leicester	13	4	5	4	+1	-3.0	17
12	Wrexham	13	4	5	4	+0	-4.8	17
13	Ipswich	11	4	4	3	+4	+9.6	16
14	Swansea	12	4	4	4	+0	-4.9	16
15	Watford	12	4	3	5	-2	+3.4	15
16	Birmingham	12	4	3	5	-4	+4.2	15
17	Derby	12	3	5	4	-3	-5.2	14
18	Portsmouth	12	3	4	5	-3	-2.4	13
19	Blackburn	12	4	1	7	-5	+3.4	13
20	Oxford	12	3	3	6	-2	-0.8	12
21	Southampton	11	2	5	4	-4	+5.6	11
22	Sheffield United	12	3	0	9	-11	-0.1	9
23	Norwich	13	2	2	9	-8	-4.1	8
24	Sheffield Weds	13	1	4	8	-15	-10.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	6	4	2	0	+13	+5.5	14
2	Ipswich	7	4	2	1	+6	+8.8	14
3	Preston	7	4	2	1	+4	-0.7	14
4	Middlesbrough	6	4	2	0	+4	+0.4	14
5	Hull	7	4	2	1	+2	-3.0	14
6	Watford	6	4	1	1	+3	+3.1	13
7	Millwall	7	4	0	3	-2	+0.6	12
8	Bristol City	7	3	2	2	+2	-0.1	11
9	Charlton	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.1	10
10	Stoke	5	3	1	1	+3	+1.5	10
11	Leicester	6	2	3	1	+1	+2.6	9
12	West Brom	6	2	3	1	+1	+2.4	9
13	Wrexham	7	2	3	2	-1	-0.0	9
14	Swansea	7	2	3	2	-1	-1.5	9
15	Derby	7	2	3	2	-1	-0.0	9
16	QPR	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.6	8
17	Birmingham	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.7	8
18	Portsmouth	7	2	1	4	-3	-1.1	7
19	Southampton	4	1	2	1	+0	+6.5	5
20	Oxford	5	1	2	2	-1	+3.3	5
21	Blackburn	6	1	1	4	-5	+0.7	4
22	Sheffield United	5	1	0	4	-5	+0.6	3
23	Sheffield Weds	7	0	1	6	-15	-7.3	1
24	Norwich	6	0	0	6	-7	+0.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	7	4	2	1	+11	+9.8	14
2	Bristol City	5	3	2	0	+7	+3.2	11
3	Millwall	5	3	2	0	+3	+0.8	11
4	Stoke	7	3	2	2	+2	-3.2	11
5	Middlesbrough	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.9	10
6	QPR	7	3	1	3	-4	-2.3	10
7	Charlton	7	2	3	2	+0	-2.6	9
8	Blackburn	6	3	0	3	+0	+2.7	9
9	West Brom	7	3	0	4	-3	-3.1	9
10	Wrexham	6	2	2	2	+1	-4.8	8
11	Hull	6	2	2	2	+0	-6.1	8
12	Leicester	7	2	2	3	+0	-5.6	8
13	Norwich	7	2	2	3	-1	-4.1	8
14	Swansea	5	2	1	2	+1	-3.4	7
15	Oxford	7	2	1	4	-1	-4.1	7
16	Birmingham	7	2	1	4	-5	-0.5	7
17	Sheffield Weds	6	1	3	2	+0	-2.9	6
18	Portsmouth	5	1	3	1	+0	-1.3	6
19	Southampton	7	1	3	3	-4	-0.8	6
20	Sheffield United	7	2	0	5	-6	-0.8	6
21	Preston	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.4	5
22	Derby	5	1	2	2	-2	-5.1	5
23	Ipswich	4	0	2	2	-2	+0.8	2
24	Watford	6	0	2	4	-5	+0.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.