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Premier League

Referee: Lee Mason

Aston Villa

T S T U T

2–2

Full-time

Burnley

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%

16 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 18. · Burnley 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	7	0	0	+13	21
2	Man City	6	4	1	1	+18	13
3	Leicester	6	3	2	1	+3	11
4	Arsenal	6	3	2	1	+1	11
5	West Ham	6	3	2	1	+1	11
6	Bournemouth	6	3	1	2	+1	10
7	Tottenham	6	2	2	2	+4	8
8	Man United	6	2	2	2	+2	8
9	Burnley	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	Sheffield United	7	2	2	3	+0	8
11	Chelsea	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	2	2	-3	8
13	Southampton	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Everton	6	2	1	3	-4	7
15	Brighton	6	1	3	2	-3	6
16	Norwich	6	2	0	4	-5	6
17	Newcastle	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Aston Villa	6	1	1	4	-3	4
19	Wolves	6	0	4	2	-4	4
20	Watford	6	0	2	4	-14	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Man City	3	2	1	0	+12	7
3	Leicester	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Tottenham	3	2	0	1	+5	6
6	Man United	3	2	0	1	+4	6
7	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Burnley	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Everton	3	2	0	1	+0	6
10	West Ham	3	2	0	1	-1	6
11	Crystal Palace	3	1	2	0	+1	5
12	Aston Villa	3	1	1	1	+1	4
13	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Sheffield United	4	1	0	3	-2	3
15	Chelsea	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Newcastle	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Brighton	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Wolves	3	0	2	1	-3	2
19	Southampton	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	Watford	3	0	1	2	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Man City	3	2	0	1	+6	6
3	Bournemouth	3	2	0	1	+1	6
4	Chelsea	3	2	0	1	+0	6
5	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+0	6
6	Sheffield United	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	West Ham	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Arsenal	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Brighton	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	-3	3
12	Crystal Palace	3	1	0	2	-4	3
13	Tottenham	3	0	2	1	-1	2
14	Wolves	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Burnley	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Man United	3	0	2	1	-2	2
17	Everton	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Watford	3	0	1	2	-9	1
19	Aston Villa	3	0	0	3	-4	0
20	Norwich	3	0	0	3	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.