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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Newcastle

U T S S S

3–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,3

3,2

Scored

2,8

1,7

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 44%

41%

47%

Points per game

1,5

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

53%

71%

Both score Ø 65%

59%

71%

Average goals

2,8

3,1

Scored

1,6

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,76 xG 0,34

63% Possession 37%

22 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 6

5 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Newcastle 8. · Aston Villa 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	12	3	1	+21	+21.0	39
2	Chelsea	17	10	5	2	+18	+11.4	35
3	Arsenal	17	9	6	2	+18	+14.3	33
4	Nott'm Forest	17	9	4	4	+4	+2.7	31
5	Bournemouth	17	8	4	5	+6	+11.8	28
6	Man City	18	8	4	6	+4	+7.2	28
7	Aston Villa	17	8	4	5	+0	+7.3	28
8	Newcastle	17	7	5	5	+6	+6.4	26
9	Fulham	17	6	7	4	+2	+2.0	25
10	Brighton	17	6	7	4	+1	-2.5	25
11	Tottenham	17	7	2	8	+14	+2.5	23
12	Brentford	17	7	2	8	+0	-2.8	23
13	Man United	17	6	4	7	-1	+0.7	22
14	West Ham	17	5	5	7	-8	-4.2	20
15	Everton	17	3	8	6	-7	-6.6	17
16	Crystal Palace	17	3	7	7	-8	-1.5	16
17	Leicester	17	3	5	9	-16	-18.2	14
18	Wolves	17	3	3	11	-13	-10.3	12
19	Ipswich	17	2	6	9	-16	-19.5	12
20	Southampton	17	1	3	13	-25	-21.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	9	7	1	1	+10	+6.8	22
2	Liverpool	8	6	1	1	+10	+9.6	19
3	Arsenal	8	5	3	0	+11	+11.5	18
4	Aston Villa	9	5	3	1	+5	+10.1	18
5	Man City	9	5	2	2	+4	+9.0	17
6	Chelsea	8	4	3	1	+5	+7.6	15
7	Fulham	9	4	3	2	+1	+1.2	15
8	Newcastle	8	4	2	2	+4	+4.6	14
9	Bournemouth	8	4	2	2	+4	+7.4	14
10	Nott'm Forest	8	4	2	2	+3	+4.1	14
11	Tottenham	9	4	1	4	+6	+0.7	13
12	Brighton	8	3	4	1	+1	+1.3	13
13	Man United	9	4	1	4	-1	+1.3	13
14	West Ham	9	3	2	4	-4	-1.9	11
15	Everton	8	2	4	2	+1	-2.9	10
16	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-4	-7.9	9
17	Crystal Palace	9	1	4	4	-8	-0.1	7
18	Wolves	8	1	1	6	-8	-5.7	4
19	Ipswich	9	0	4	5	-10	-7.3	4
20	Southampton	8	1	1	6	-14	-12.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	9	6	2	1	+13	+3.8	20
2	Liverpool	8	6	2	0	+11	+11.3	20
3	Nott'm Forest	9	5	2	2	+1	-1.4	17
4	Arsenal	9	4	3	2	+7	+2.7	15
5	Bournemouth	9	4	2	3	+2	+4.3	14
6	Newcastle	9	3	3	3	+2	+1.8	12
7	Brighton	9	3	3	3	+0	-3.9	12
8	Man City	9	3	2	4	+0	-1.8	11
9	Tottenham	8	3	1	4	+8	+1.9	10
10	Fulham	8	2	4	2	+1	+0.7	10
11	Aston Villa	8	3	1	4	-5	-2.8	10
12	Crystal Palace	8	2	3	3	+0	-1.4	9
13	Man United	8	2	3	3	+0	-0.6	9
14	West Ham	8	2	3	3	-4	-2.3	9
15	Wolves	9	2	2	5	-5	-4.6	8
16	Ipswich	8	2	2	4	-6	-12.2	8
17	Everton	9	1	4	4	-8	-3.7	7
18	Leicester	8	1	2	5	-12	-10.2	5
19	Southampton	9	0	2	7	-11	-9.2	2
20	Brentford	8	0	1	7	-10	-9.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.