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Championship

Referee: G Eltringham

Watford

S U U S T

2–1

Full-time

Portsmouth

U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Portsmouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 21/20 matches

Win Ø 34%

48%

20%

Points per game

1,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

62%

65%

Both score Ø 59%

57%

60%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,54 xG 0,22

71% Possession 29%

13 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 6

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 8. · Portsmouth 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	22	13	6	3	+26	+24.0	45
2	Sheffield United	20	13	5	2	+19	+9.1	44
3	Burnley	22	12	8	2	+19	+7.2	44
4	Sunderland	20	12	6	2	+17	+4.9	42
5	Blackburn	21	11	4	6	+7	-0.0	37
6	Middlesbrough	22	10	5	7	+10	+13.6	35
7	West Brom	22	8	11	3	+10	+4.0	35
8	Watford	21	10	4	7	+2	-4.0	34
9	Sheffield Weds	22	9	5	8	-2	-3.3	32
10	Millwall	21	7	7	7	+3	+7.6	28
11	Swansea	22	7	6	9	+0	-0.6	27
12	Bristol City	21	6	9	6	-1	+1.6	27
13	Norwich	22	6	8	8	+3	+3.7	26
14	QPR	22	5	10	7	-5	-4.4	25
15	Luton	22	7	4	11	-13	-2.6	25
16	Derby	22	6	6	10	-1	-0.5	24
17	Coventry	21	6	5	10	-6	+11.9	23
18	Preston	22	4	11	7	-7	-4.1	23
19	Stoke	22	5	7	10	-7	-11.4	22
20	Portsmouth	20	4	8	8	-10	-8.1	20
21	Hull	22	4	7	11	-10	-3.6	19
22	Cardiff	21	4	6	11	-15	-9.4	18
23	Oxford	21	4	6	11	-16	-14.3	18
24	Plymouth	21	4	6	11	-23	-21.4	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	12	10	1	1	+23	+16.9	31
2	Watford	10	8	2	0	+10	+1.4	26
3	Sheffield United	9	8	1	0	+13	+9.5	25
4	Sunderland	10	7	3	0	+12	+5.8	24
5	Burnley	11	6	5	0	+11	+5.0	23
6	Blackburn	10	7	1	2	+8	+3.3	22
7	Luton	12	6	3	3	+3	+3.2	21
8	Middlesbrough	11	6	2	3	+5	+8.2	20
9	Millwall	12	6	2	4	+5	+7.0	20
10	West Brom	11	4	6	1	+5	+3.9	18
11	Derby	10	5	2	3	+8	+6.4	17
12	Norwich	10	4	4	2	+11	+5.6	16
13	Plymouth	10	4	4	2	+3	-1.4	16
14	Sheffield Weds	12	4	4	4	+0	+0.9	16
15	Oxford	11	4	4	3	-1	-4.8	16
16	Preston	11	3	6	2	+1	+1.0	15
17	Bristol City	9	3	5	1	+5	+3.8	14
18	Coventry	10	4	2	4	+2	+10.5	14
19	Stoke	11	3	5	3	+2	-2.6	14
20	QPR	12	3	5	4	-2	+3.4	14
21	Swansea	10	3	4	3	+2	+6.2	13
22	Portsmouth	10	3	4	3	+2	+0.8	13
23	Cardiff	11	4	0	7	-5	-3.0	12
24	Hull	12	2	5	5	-3	+1.8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	11	6	3	2	+8	+2.2	21
2	Sheffield United	11	5	4	2	+6	-0.4	19
3	Sunderland	10	5	3	2	+5	-0.9	18
4	West Brom	11	4	5	2	+5	+0.1	17
5	Sheffield Weds	10	5	1	4	-2	-4.1	16
6	Middlesbrough	11	4	3	4	+5	+5.4	15
7	Blackburn	11	4	3	4	-1	-3.3	15
8	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+3	+7.0	14
9	Swansea	12	4	2	6	-2	-6.8	14
10	Bristol City	12	3	4	5	-6	-2.2	13
11	QPR	10	2	5	3	-3	-7.8	11
12	Norwich	12	2	4	6	-8	-1.9	10
13	Coventry	11	2	3	6	-8	+1.3	9
14	Millwall	9	1	5	3	-2	+0.6	8
15	Hull	10	2	2	6	-7	-5.3	8
16	Watford	11	2	2	7	-8	-5.4	8
17	Preston	11	1	5	5	-8	-5.1	8
18	Stoke	11	2	2	7	-9	-8.7	8
19	Derby	12	1	4	7	-9	-6.9	7
20	Portsmouth	10	1	4	5	-12	-8.9	7
21	Cardiff	10	0	6	4	-10	-6.4	6
22	Luton	10	1	1	8	-16	-5.8	4
23	Oxford	10	0	2	8	-15	-9.5	2
24	Plymouth	11	0	2	9	-26	-20.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.